Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is making what might be the biggest bet in its history. Starting in 2026, the company plans to kick off full-scale robotaxi production, moving beyond its identity as an electric vehicle maker into something far more ambitious: an AI-powered transportation network that could redefine how we think about getting around.
It's a massive pivot. CEO Elon Musk is steering Tesla away from just selling cars and toward building an ecosystem of autonomous vehicles and robotics. The question everyone's asking now is whether this vision can actually scale, and how quickly.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives thinks it can. He reiterated an Outperform rating on Tesla this week, keeping his $600 price target intact. In his view, 2026 represents a make-or-break year for Musk and the company as they transition into this autonomous and robotics era.
Ives noted that investors are split on how fast the robotaxi opportunity can realistically grow following Tesla's recent launch activity in Austin. But he expects the company to push hard on deployment across the United States, with volume production of Cybercabs possibly starting as soon as April or May.
According to Ives, autonomous driving and robotics will sit at the core of Tesla's strategy in 2026. He characterized Musk as operating in "wartime CEO" mode, leading the company into its next growth chapter. The plan? Roll out robotaxis in more than 30 U.S. cities next year.
Regulatory Winds Shifting in Tesla's Favor
Here's where things get interesting. Ives estimates that Tesla's AI and autonomous opportunity alone could be worth at least $1 trillion. He anticipates that over the next three to six months, Tesla's key initiatives will gain momentum as federal regulatory barriers around Full Self-Driving and autonomy start to ease under the Trump administration.
The administration has made it clear that keeping the U.S. ahead of China in the global AI race is a priority, and autonomous technology is seen as a critical battlefield. Ives expects changes to the federal framework that would expand national regulatory authority while limiting state-level control, potentially through an executive order. That would be a significant tailwind for Tesla's ambitions.
The Path to $3 Trillion
Looking further ahead, Ives projects Tesla could hit a $2 trillion market capitalization in 2026. In a bull-case scenario, he sees $3 trillion as achievable once full-scale production ramps across its autonomous and robotics roadmap. His bull-case stock price? $800.
Tesla's AI-driven valuation is beginning to unlock, Ives said. Broader adoption of Full Self-Driving and accelerating Cybercab deployment in the U.S. are emerging as the "golden goose" for Musk and company, potentially driving significant value over the next six to nine months.
Not Just a Car Company Anymore
Ives hammered home a point he's been making for a while: Tesla shouldn't be viewed solely as an automaker. It's a global disruptive technology leader. The past five years, he said, laid the groundwork for this strategy. Now 2026 marks the beginning of Tesla's most important chapter—an autonomous, AI-powered future.
He also pointed to Musk's new pay package and a potential stake in xAI as additional catalysts for Tesla's AI strategy. The analyst named the stock a core holding on his IVES AI 30 list.
For the fourth quarter, Ives projects revenue of $23.37 billion and earnings per share of 43 cents.
Price Action: Tesla shares were up 3.69% at $475.87 at the time of publication on Monday. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $488.53.