Carnival Corp (CCL) reports its fiscal second-quarter results on December 18, and Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove thinks we're looking at a decent but not spectacular quarter. She's keeping her Buy rating and $31 price target in place.

The setup is interesting. There's been chatter about Caribbean cruise oversupply and some recent cruise industry hiccups that have people worried. But Carnival has what Dove calls "lower exposure" to the Caribbean compared to competitors. Plus, the company just opened Celebration Key, an exclusive destination on Grand Bahama Island that could give bookings a boost.

The Numbers Game

Dove expects fourth-quarter results to land roughly where Wall Street anticipated. She's penciling in net yield growth guidance of at least 2.75% (closer to 3% when you account for a 25 basis point loyalty program headwind hitting in the fourth quarter) and cost growth around 3.25%, weighted toward the first half of the year.

Translation: a choppy quarter, but nothing alarming.

Why 2026 Matters More

The analyst pointed to three reasons the stock could catch momentum next year. First, capital returns might finally materialize in the coming quarters. Second, there's a Spring Investor Day on the calendar where management can lay out its vision. Third, and perhaps most importantly, Carnival's geographic diversification and investments in private destinations give it "some insulation from Caribbean pressure."

That last point matters. When one region gets crowded or faces headwinds, having exposure elsewhere helps smooth things out.

Shares of Carnival rose 1.92% to $28.15 on Monday ahead of the earnings release.