Pfizer Inc. (PFE) is set to unveil its full-year 2026 financial guidance on Tuesday, and if Bank of America Securities has it right, don't expect fireworks. The investment bank is forecasting another year that looks a lot like 2025, which is to say: not great, not terrible, just kind of there.

The outlook? Flat growth propped up by keeping expenses in check rather than any exciting surge in sales. It's the financial equivalent of treading water, but at least you're not sinking.

Analyst Jason Gerberry maintained his Neutral rating on Pfizer but nudged his price target down to $28 from $29. The new target reflects a valuation of 9.5 times estimated fiscal 2027 earnings, up from the previous multiple of 9 times fiscal 2026 estimates. So the math changed, but the enthusiasm level stayed about the same.

The Patent Cliff Keeps On Giving (In The Bad Way)

Here's the thing weighing on Pfizer: the company is slogging through a brutal multi-year patent expiration cycle that won't wrap up until 2029. Loss of exclusivity means cheaper generic competition eating into revenue from some of its biggest products, and there's not much anyone can do except wait it out.

Bank of America doesn't see many catalysts in 2026 that could spark a meaningful revaluation of the stock. The firm notes that Pfizer's valuation is already trading near the bottom of its sector peers, though the company does offer an attractive dividend yield as a consolation prize for patient investors.

Gerberry described 2026 as a "pipeline-light year" when it comes to data releases that might move the needle on investor sentiment. The key areas to watch include MET-097 in the crowded obesity market, progress on antibody-drug conjugates, and development of Prevnar-25.

But perhaps more important strategically is Pfizer's broader pneumococcal vaccine franchise, particularly its 30-plus-valent program, as the competitive landscape in that space continues to shift.

Meanwhile, Adaptive Biotechnologies Gets Deeper With Pfizer

In related news, Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) announced two new non-exclusive agreements with Pfizer, underscoring continued investment in immune-based therapies.

Adaptive has identified what it calls "offender" T-cell receptors, the kind that go rogue and contribute to autoimmune diseases. Under one agreement focused on rheumatoid arthritis, Pfizer will tap into Adaptive's immune medicine platform to hunt down disease-causing TCRs that could serve as therapeutic targets.

Adaptive handles the target discovery work, while Pfizer takes the wheel on development and commercialization. For its efforts, Adaptive gets an upfront payment plus the potential for milestone payments tied to data delivery, development progress, commercialization, and sales that could total up to roughly $890 million.

A separate TCR-antigen data licensing deal also includes an upfront payment and potential future payments tied to ongoing collaboration.

Pfizer shares were up 1.76% at $26.30 at the time of publication on Monday.