ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW) is having a rough Monday after KeyBanc analyst Jackson Ader downgraded the enterprise software giant from Sector Weight to Underweight, slapping a $775 price target on the stock. Shares dropped more than 11% following the call.
The Bear Case Takes Shape
Ader's concerns center on several converging headwinds. First up: recent trends in IT back-office employment suggest ServiceNow could face mounting AI-related pressure in coming quarters. The company's own AI offerings use a hybrid monetization model that might cushion some of the blow from declining seat counts, but the analyst notes that similar strategies haven't exactly saved other SaaS players facing comparable challenges.
Here's where it gets interesting. Ader believes ServiceNow's current status as an AI orchestration leader is about to get seriously challenged by Microsoft in 2026. That's not exactly a small competitor nipping at your heels.
Government budget headwinds are also lurking in the background. While not as catastrophic as initially feared, they could still trigger increased spending scrutiny, according to the analyst.
The final kicker? Compared to other companies in Ader's coverage universe, ServiceNow's growth is decelerating while the company ramps up inorganic spending more aggressively than ever before.
The Numbers Still Look Decent
Despite the bearish stance, Ader isn't projecting doom and gloom for revenue. He still expects FY1 revenue of $13.227 billion (up 20.4%) and FY2 revenue of $15.584 billion (up 17.8%). That's solid growth by most standards.
The concern is velocity. The analyst forecasts revenue deceleration across FY0 (down 1.9%), FY1 (down 2.0%), and FY2 (down 0.2%).
M&A Activity in Motion
Meanwhile, ServiceNow is reportedly in advanced acquisition talks with cybersecurity firm Armis, a deal that could value the startup at up to $7 billion. The company appears to be leaning hard into that inorganic growth strategy Ader mentioned.
ServiceNow shares were trading at $765.32, down 11.53% at the time of publication.