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Government Shutdown Creates 'Deep Fog' Over November Jobs Data, Economist Warns

MarketDash Editorial Team
13 hours ago
Economist Justin Wolfers cautions that the recent government shutdown has artificially distorted November's unemployment numbers through a statistical quirk called 'rotation group bias,' making the labor market appear weaker than reality.

When November's jobs report drops, economist Justin Wolfers has a simple message: don't panic if the numbers look ugly. The government shutdown didn't just delay data collection—it fundamentally scrambled how that data gets measured.

Why Missing One Month Breaks Everything

Here's the technical problem. The Bureau of Labor Statistics normally follows what's called a "4-8-4" rotation cycle. They survey households for four months, leave them alone for eight months, then bring them back for another four-month stint. It's a carefully calibrated system designed to balance fresh perspectives with consistent tracking.

But when the government shutdown wiped out October's survey entirely, that delicate rotation cycle went haywire. In a normal month, only about one-eighth of survey respondents are completely new to the process. In November, Wolfers calculates that roughly 25% of respondents—twice the usual number—are first-timers who've never answered these questions before.

That might sound like a minor technicality. It's not.

The First-Timer Problem

Wolfers points to a well-documented statistical quirk called "rotation group bias." People answering the labor survey for the first time consistently report higher unemployment rates than people who've been through the survey before. Looking at data from 2022 through 2025, first-time respondents typically report unemployment rates that are 0.7 percentage points higher than experienced respondents.

Why does this happen? The exact psychological mechanism isn't entirely clear. Maybe first-timers interpret the questions differently. Maybe they're more cautious or pessimistic in their assessments. Whatever the reason, the pattern is consistent and measurable.

With November's sample containing double the normal proportion of these "pessimistic" first-timers, the math becomes inevitable. The overall unemployment rate will get pushed upward, not because the labor market actually deteriorated, but because the sample composition changed. Wolfers predicts this distortion "will likely push the measured unemployment up a tad," regardless of what's actually happening in the real economy.

Navigating the Fog

The problems extend beyond just the rotation bias. The BLS typically uses panel data methods—tracking the same people over time—to smooth out random volatility in the numbers. When a quarter of your sample is brand new, those smoothing techniques become far less effective. The result is noisier, less reliable estimates.

Wolfers notes that while the government is technically out of its "statistical blackout," the shutdown's "echo effects" are still reverberating through the data. Analysts and policymakers are essentially navigating what he calls a "deep fog" when trying to assess the actual health of the labor market.

Market watchers seemed cautious ahead of the data release. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices respectively, closed lower on Monday. SPY declined 0.15% to $680.73, while QQQ dropped 0.50% to $610.54. Futures for all three major indices traded lower on Tuesday.

The bottom line: when November's unemployment number hits, remember that you're not just looking at labor market reality. You're looking at reality filtered through a statistically compromised lens.

Back to News

Government Shutdown Creates 'Deep Fog' Over November Jobs Data, Economist Warns

MarketDash Editorial Team
13 hours ago
Economist Justin Wolfers cautions that the recent government shutdown has artificially distorted November's unemployment numbers through a statistical quirk called 'rotation group bias,' making the labor market appear weaker than reality.

When November's jobs report drops, economist Justin Wolfers has a simple message: don't panic if the numbers look ugly. The government shutdown didn't just delay data collection—it fundamentally scrambled how that data gets measured.

Why Missing One Month Breaks Everything

Here's the technical problem. The Bureau of Labor Statistics normally follows what's called a "4-8-4" rotation cycle. They survey households for four months, leave them alone for eight months, then bring them back for another four-month stint. It's a carefully calibrated system designed to balance fresh perspectives with consistent tracking.

But when the government shutdown wiped out October's survey entirely, that delicate rotation cycle went haywire. In a normal month, only about one-eighth of survey respondents are completely new to the process. In November, Wolfers calculates that roughly 25% of respondents—twice the usual number—are first-timers who've never answered these questions before.

That might sound like a minor technicality. It's not.

The First-Timer Problem

Wolfers points to a well-documented statistical quirk called "rotation group bias." People answering the labor survey for the first time consistently report higher unemployment rates than people who've been through the survey before. Looking at data from 2022 through 2025, first-time respondents typically report unemployment rates that are 0.7 percentage points higher than experienced respondents.

Why does this happen? The exact psychological mechanism isn't entirely clear. Maybe first-timers interpret the questions differently. Maybe they're more cautious or pessimistic in their assessments. Whatever the reason, the pattern is consistent and measurable.

With November's sample containing double the normal proportion of these "pessimistic" first-timers, the math becomes inevitable. The overall unemployment rate will get pushed upward, not because the labor market actually deteriorated, but because the sample composition changed. Wolfers predicts this distortion "will likely push the measured unemployment up a tad," regardless of what's actually happening in the real economy.

Navigating the Fog

The problems extend beyond just the rotation bias. The BLS typically uses panel data methods—tracking the same people over time—to smooth out random volatility in the numbers. When a quarter of your sample is brand new, those smoothing techniques become far less effective. The result is noisier, less reliable estimates.

Wolfers notes that while the government is technically out of its "statistical blackout," the shutdown's "echo effects" are still reverberating through the data. Analysts and policymakers are essentially navigating what he calls a "deep fog" when trying to assess the actual health of the labor market.

Market watchers seemed cautious ahead of the data release. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices respectively, closed lower on Monday. SPY declined 0.15% to $680.73, while QQQ dropped 0.50% to $610.54. Futures for all three major indices traded lower on Tuesday.

The bottom line: when November's unemployment number hits, remember that you're not just looking at labor market reality. You're looking at reality filtered through a statistically compromised lens.