When layoffs reach a 14-year peak and job openings flatline, people get creative. For a growing number of professionals in their 40s, that means going back to school—trading resumes for transcripts in hopes of staying relevant in a rapidly shifting job market.

The New Calculus: Experience Isn't Enough Anymore

Graduate programs, professional certifications, and specialized courses in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, data analytics, healthcare, and engineering are seeing a surge in enrollment from mid-career adults. The motivation is straightforward: the old rules don't apply anymore.

Lacey Kaelani, CEO of Metaintro, runs a job-search platform that analyzes over 600 million positions. She's watching this trend accelerate in real time. "We absolutely see this trend [of adults going back to school] accelerating," Kaelani said. "In combination with layoffs over the recent years plus the rise of required AI skills, experience is no longer enough."

Employment attorney Kelsey Szamet has noticed the same pattern among her older clients. Some feel stuck on a career plateau. Others got caught in layoff waves. Many are chasing more meaningful work or taking advantage of life circumstances—fewer family obligations, better financial footing—that make now the right time to invest in themselves.

The Cost-Benefit Analysis Gets Complicated

Here's where it gets tricky. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, a year of graduate school averages $43,000 in tuition—that's nearly 70% of the average U.S. salary. It's a hefty bet, and the payoff varies wildly by degree.

Computer science, nursing, and engineering programs can generate returns up to $500,000 over a lifetime. But here's the sobering part: nearly 40% of master's degrees provide little or no financial benefit whatsoever.

Kaelani emphasized that blanket education strategies don't work anymore. "Going back to school only works when it's strategic and targeted [like a] specific technical certification in a high-demand field, but fails when it's vague," she said. "It's no longer 'more education equals a better job.'"

Translation: A targeted certification in AI or cybersecurity might unlock doors. A generic master's degree might just unlock more student debt.

Meanwhile, the Job Market Keeps Deteriorating

The broader employment picture isn't helping matters. Economist Justin Wolfers pointed out that November labor market data was compromised by the recent government shutdown, which canceled the October survey and doubled the number of inexperienced respondents in the sample.

Even before that data hiccup, the Conference Board reported that the job market felt as challenging as during the pandemic, with 20% of consumers saying jobs were "hard to get." Job openings continued to fall, small businesses struggled to hire, and part-time workers displaced from full-time roles made up nearly 17% of the workforce—a warning sign that business activity and confidence may be cooling.

So mid-career professionals are doing the math: stay the course in a weakening job market with outdated skills, or invest tens of thousands of dollars in education that might—or might not—pay off. It's not an easy choice, but more people are picking the classroom over the unemployment line.