Here's a weird situation: Bitcoin (BTC) looks cheap based on fundamentals, institutional buyers are hungry, and yet the price just sits there like a stubborn teenager refusing to leave the couch.
According to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between two powerful forces. On one side, institutional and corporate demand through Coinbase is hitting near-record levels. On the other, long-term holders—the OG whales who've been around since the early days—are aggressively unloading their coins into that buying pressure, effectively capping any upward momentum.
The Fundamental Case Versus Reality
On-chain valuation models tell a compelling story. Based on network security and usage, BTC is trading well below what should be considered fair value. Yet despite these strong fundamentals, price remains stuck in neutral.
Corporate Bitcoin treasury stocks are trading at deep discounts to their net asset value, leverage is creeping up, and the once-powerful corporate accumulation flywheel that drove earlier rallies appears to have lost its steam. Edwards characterizes the setup as "value-attractive but momentum-defensive"—bullish for the long haul but constrained in the short term until the selling pressure lets up.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez put it more bluntly: "Bear market. The 4-year cycle is back."
What the Data Shows
CryptoQuant data reveals that long-term holders are distributing at one of the largest 30-day rates observed in the past five years. This is the kind of behavior typically seen at late-cycle tops, not bottoms.
The warning signs include long-term holder supply rolling over from record highs, spot price trading well above long-term holder realized price, and older coins taking profits rather than capitulating. This pattern points to de-risking behavior, not the fresh accumulation you'd expect at the start of a new bull run.
The Institutional Story Continues
Despite the selling pressure, the institutional narrative keeps growing. Public companies now hold over 1.076 million BTC, just 20,000 coins shy of Satoshi's estimated stash, according to crypto trader Rand.
Strategy (MSTR) alone claims its treasury represents 3.2% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist, continuing its aggressive acquisition program that began in Q3 2020.
Meanwhile, Eric Trump noted that American Bitcoin (ABTC) has climbed to become the 20th-largest public Bitcoin treasury company in just 39 days—a remarkably fast ascent in the corporate adoption race.