What Russia Says It's Been Promised

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a bold claim this week: the Trump administration has essentially agreed that Ukraine will hand over territory to end the war. According to Lavrov, Washington acknowledged that "territories where Russians have lived for centuries should once again become part of Russia."

He's talking about five specific regions, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas, which Russian President Vladimir Putin previously seized. So Russia's position is straightforward: we took this land, we're keeping it, and now America agrees.

The Security Deal on the Table

These Russian assertions came after recent meetings in Berlin between U.S. representatives and European leaders. The Trump administration reportedly presented Kyiv with what they're calling a "platinum" security package in exchange for giving up ground.

The details aren't fully confirmed, but the security guarantees are believed to mirror NATO's Article 5, which basically means if Russia attacks again, the West would intervene directly with military force. That's a pretty substantial promise, if it holds.

There's a catch, though. U.S. diplomats reportedly told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that these protections wouldn't "be on the table forever." In other words, take the deal now or risk getting a worse offer later.

As for NATO membership itself, Russia remains adamant that Ukraine can never join the alliance. Lavrov made this crystal clear on Tuesday: "Our position is clear. The root causes of the conflict must be eliminated. These include the threats to Russia created by NATO's eastward expansion toward our borders and by efforts to draw Ukraine into the alliance."

He added, "It is good that the US has understood this. They have clearly stated that NATO membership for Ukraine is unacceptable."

Before the Berlin discussions, Zelenskyy had signaled willingness to forgo NATO membership if Ukraine received strong security guarantees instead. President Donald Trump sounded optimistic about progress, telling reporters Monday evening, "I think we're closer now than we have been ever."

Fighting Continues Despite Diplomatic Progress

While diplomats talk, the war grinds on. Ukrainian forces launched a counter-offensive near Kupyansk, despite Putin's earlier claims of victory in that area. Viktor Tregubov, a Ukrainian military spokesman, said soldiers were rescuing civilians allegedly used as human shields by Russian units.

There are also conflicting reports about naval warfare. Moscow denied losing any vessels, while Ukrainian sources claimed their drones struck a submarine carrying cruise missiles. Par for the course in modern information warfare.

Oil Markets React to Peace Prospects

Here's where it gets interesting for markets: oil prices have tumbled to their lowest levels since 2021. WTI crude is hovering around $55 per barrel, while Brent sits near $59. The culprit? Progress in peace negotiations combined with fears of a supply glut.

If Russia and Ukraine actually reach a deal, that potentially removes a major source of supply disruption from global energy markets. Commodity-tracking funds like the United States Oil Fund (USO) have taken sharp losses as oil prices crater.

On the flip side, inverse ETFs designed to profit when energy prices fall are having a moment. The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO) has posted corresponding gains as traders bet against oil.

Whether these peace talks actually lead anywhere remains to be seen. But for now, oil markets are pricing in the possibility that one of the world's major geopolitical conflicts might actually be winding down.