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Five Stocks That Historically Deliver During the Santa Rally Window

MarketDash Editorial Team
4 hours ago
The Santa Claus rally has appeared in 76% of years over the past century. Here's what the data reveals about the S&P 500's late-December pattern and which individual stocks have consistently outperformed during the holiday stretch.

Every December, the same question makes its rounds on Wall Street: will the Santa Claus rally show up this year?

It's one of those market patterns that sounds too cute to be real, yet the data keeps backing it up. The period stretching from Christmas through early January has historically been kind to stocks, driven by lighter trading volumes, tax-related positioning, and general year-end optimism.

The pattern has been debated and dismissed for decades. But here's the thing—the numbers are hard to ignore.

What Nearly a Century of Data Reveals

According to Seasonax, which crunched 95 years of S&P 500 history, the Santa Rally between Dec. 20 and Jan. 4 has been surprisingly reliable. The index posted gains 75.79% of the time during this window, with an average advance of 1.7%. That breaks down to 72 winning years versus just 23 losing ones.

The strongest Santa Rally on record came in 1991, when the S&P 500 surged nearly 8% between Dec. 20 and Jan. 6, 1992. On the flip side, the downside has typically been contained. If you exclude the brutal 8% drop between 1931 and 1932—Depression-era stuff—losses during this period have never exceeded 3.8%.

So the broader market tends to cooperate. But what about individual stocks? Are there certain names that get an extra boost when Santa visits Wall Street?

The Five Stocks That Stand Out

Looking at the past two decades, Seasonax identified five stocks that have delivered holiday cheer more often than not during the second half of December, specifically from Dec. 16 through Dec. 31.

Illumina Inc. (ILMN) tops the list with an impressive 85% winning rate. The biotech company posted gains in 17 of the past 20 years, with an average return of 4% during the late-December window. That's consistency you don't often see in individual stocks.

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) comes in second with an 80% win rate and average gains of 1.25%. Here's what makes Caterpillar's pattern particularly striking: the heavy machinery giant delivered a Santa rally in 14 consecutive years before finally breaking the streak in 2024, when shares dropped 4.3%. Fourteen years in a row is remarkable.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) has also been reliable, rising in 15 of the past 20 years with an average return of 1.89%. The banking giant is currently on a three-year winning streak heading into the end of December, suggesting the pattern may still have legs.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) brings a different flavor to the list. While its 70% winning rate doesn't lead the pack, the copper and gold producer has delivered some genuinely impressive moves during the window. The company posted three double-digit late-December surges over the past 20 years: 11.2% in 2014, 13.95% in 2017, and 11.28% in 2020. Its average return during the period sits at 3.54%, reflecting that potential for outsized gains.

Finally, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) rounds out the group with gains in 13 of the last 20 years. That translates to a 65% winning rate and an average return of 2.69% during the Santa rally window.

The Usual Caveats Apply

None of this is a guarantee, of course. Seasonality patterns tell you what has happened historically, not what will happen next week. Markets can absolutely deliver coal when expectations run high, and past performance doesn't predict future returns.

But as the data shows, Santa has been surprisingly punctual over the long run. Whether that continues depends on a whole mess of factors—from Fed policy to economic data to geopolitical developments. Still, if you're watching the tape between now and New Year's, these five stocks have historically been worth keeping an eye on.

Back to News

Five Stocks That Historically Deliver During the Santa Rally Window

MarketDash Editorial Team
4 hours ago
The Santa Claus rally has appeared in 76% of years over the past century. Here's what the data reveals about the S&P 500's late-December pattern and which individual stocks have consistently outperformed during the holiday stretch.

Every December, the same question makes its rounds on Wall Street: will the Santa Claus rally show up this year?

It's one of those market patterns that sounds too cute to be real, yet the data keeps backing it up. The period stretching from Christmas through early January has historically been kind to stocks, driven by lighter trading volumes, tax-related positioning, and general year-end optimism.

The pattern has been debated and dismissed for decades. But here's the thing—the numbers are hard to ignore.

What Nearly a Century of Data Reveals

According to Seasonax, which crunched 95 years of S&P 500 history, the Santa Rally between Dec. 20 and Jan. 4 has been surprisingly reliable. The index posted gains 75.79% of the time during this window, with an average advance of 1.7%. That breaks down to 72 winning years versus just 23 losing ones.

The strongest Santa Rally on record came in 1991, when the S&P 500 surged nearly 8% between Dec. 20 and Jan. 6, 1992. On the flip side, the downside has typically been contained. If you exclude the brutal 8% drop between 1931 and 1932—Depression-era stuff—losses during this period have never exceeded 3.8%.

So the broader market tends to cooperate. But what about individual stocks? Are there certain names that get an extra boost when Santa visits Wall Street?

The Five Stocks That Stand Out

Looking at the past two decades, Seasonax identified five stocks that have delivered holiday cheer more often than not during the second half of December, specifically from Dec. 16 through Dec. 31.

Illumina Inc. (ILMN) tops the list with an impressive 85% winning rate. The biotech company posted gains in 17 of the past 20 years, with an average return of 4% during the late-December window. That's consistency you don't often see in individual stocks.

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) comes in second with an 80% win rate and average gains of 1.25%. Here's what makes Caterpillar's pattern particularly striking: the heavy machinery giant delivered a Santa rally in 14 consecutive years before finally breaking the streak in 2024, when shares dropped 4.3%. Fourteen years in a row is remarkable.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) has also been reliable, rising in 15 of the past 20 years with an average return of 1.89%. The banking giant is currently on a three-year winning streak heading into the end of December, suggesting the pattern may still have legs.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) brings a different flavor to the list. While its 70% winning rate doesn't lead the pack, the copper and gold producer has delivered some genuinely impressive moves during the window. The company posted three double-digit late-December surges over the past 20 years: 11.2% in 2014, 13.95% in 2017, and 11.28% in 2020. Its average return during the period sits at 3.54%, reflecting that potential for outsized gains.

Finally, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) rounds out the group with gains in 13 of the last 20 years. That translates to a 65% winning rate and an average return of 2.69% during the Santa rally window.

The Usual Caveats Apply

None of this is a guarantee, of course. Seasonality patterns tell you what has happened historically, not what will happen next week. Markets can absolutely deliver coal when expectations run high, and past performance doesn't predict future returns.

But as the data shows, Santa has been surprisingly punctual over the long run. Whether that continues depends on a whole mess of factors—from Fed policy to economic data to geopolitical developments. Still, if you're watching the tape between now and New Year's, these five stocks have historically been worth keeping an eye on.