Marketdash
Back to News

Job Growth Has Stalled Since Liberation Day, and Economists Are Sounding the Alarm

MarketDash Editorial Team
4 hours ago
The November jobs report shows employment barely budging, with experts pointing to tariff fallout, government cuts, and broader economic headwinds as warning signs mount about labor market health.

The labor market is sending mixed signals, and none of them look particularly good. November's nonfarm payrolls report showed 64,000 new jobs, which technically beat the dismal 50,000 forecast but still falls far short of what anyone would call healthy job growth. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this is exactly the kind of number that makes economists start using words like "concerning" and "worrisome."

The Numbers Tell a Grim Story

University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers broke down what's really happening, and it's not pretty. After you account for October's job losses and downward revisions to August and September, there's been "virtually no employment growth" since April. That timing matters because April is when President Donald Trump launched his "Liberation Day" tariffs, and the correlation isn't lost on anyone watching these numbers.

But it gets worse. Wolfers points out that the official payroll figures might actually be overstating how many jobs we're adding. The Federal Reserve estimates that technical quirks in the birth-death model inflate job growth by roughly 60,000 positions per month. Do the math, and you're looking at employment actually shrinking by around 40,000 jobs monthly.

Some of this weakness ties directly to federal workforce reductions under the DOGE initiative. Government job cuts slashed 157,000 positions in October and another 5,000 in November as workers took what Wolfers called a "fork in the road" exit from public employment. But here's the kicker: the public sector isn't the only problem. "Private-sector hiring remains weak and may have stalled totally," Wolfers warned.

The Sahm Rule, which flags recessions when the three-month average unemployment rate climbs at least half a percentage point above its recent low, is also flashing yellow. Unemployment sat at 4.0% in January, but the latest three-month average now stands at 4.5%. Whether we're already in a recession remains unclear, but the employment trend certainly isn't pointing in the right direction.

The Fed's Impossible Choice

Investor Kevin O'Leary, speaking on CNN Tuesday, laid out the Federal Reserve's predicament pretty clearly. The weak jobs data "supports a 25 basis point rate cut," he said, though he noted the report was "soft and slightly inaccurate" due to the impact of a 43-day government shutdown.

The problem? Inflation is still running at 3.1%, well above the Fed's target. That puts policymakers in a "very difficult position," because cutting rates to support employment risks reigniting inflation. O'Leary added that management teams at companies he invests in, spanning all 11 S&P 500 sectors and mostly employing between 5 and 500 workers, are increasingly worried about rising input costs.

A Hiring Recession Takes Hold

California Gov. Gavin Newsom didn't mince words, sarcastically posting "Great work, @realDonaldTrump" while sharing analysis from Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. Long's numbers show 710,000 more Americans unemployed in November compared to the same month last year. Her conclusion? "The US economy is in a hiring recession."

Long attributed the deterioration to a "combination of tariff impacts, AI, and cost-cutting," all of which are now hurting American workers. It's a trifecta of economic headwinds, and the labor market is caught right in the middle.

Back to News

Job Growth Has Stalled Since Liberation Day, and Economists Are Sounding the Alarm

MarketDash Editorial Team
4 hours ago
The November jobs report shows employment barely budging, with experts pointing to tariff fallout, government cuts, and broader economic headwinds as warning signs mount about labor market health.

The labor market is sending mixed signals, and none of them look particularly good. November's nonfarm payrolls report showed 64,000 new jobs, which technically beat the dismal 50,000 forecast but still falls far short of what anyone would call healthy job growth. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this is exactly the kind of number that makes economists start using words like "concerning" and "worrisome."

The Numbers Tell a Grim Story

University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers broke down what's really happening, and it's not pretty. After you account for October's job losses and downward revisions to August and September, there's been "virtually no employment growth" since April. That timing matters because April is when President Donald Trump launched his "Liberation Day" tariffs, and the correlation isn't lost on anyone watching these numbers.

But it gets worse. Wolfers points out that the official payroll figures might actually be overstating how many jobs we're adding. The Federal Reserve estimates that technical quirks in the birth-death model inflate job growth by roughly 60,000 positions per month. Do the math, and you're looking at employment actually shrinking by around 40,000 jobs monthly.

Some of this weakness ties directly to federal workforce reductions under the DOGE initiative. Government job cuts slashed 157,000 positions in October and another 5,000 in November as workers took what Wolfers called a "fork in the road" exit from public employment. But here's the kicker: the public sector isn't the only problem. "Private-sector hiring remains weak and may have stalled totally," Wolfers warned.

The Sahm Rule, which flags recessions when the three-month average unemployment rate climbs at least half a percentage point above its recent low, is also flashing yellow. Unemployment sat at 4.0% in January, but the latest three-month average now stands at 4.5%. Whether we're already in a recession remains unclear, but the employment trend certainly isn't pointing in the right direction.

The Fed's Impossible Choice

Investor Kevin O'Leary, speaking on CNN Tuesday, laid out the Federal Reserve's predicament pretty clearly. The weak jobs data "supports a 25 basis point rate cut," he said, though he noted the report was "soft and slightly inaccurate" due to the impact of a 43-day government shutdown.

The problem? Inflation is still running at 3.1%, well above the Fed's target. That puts policymakers in a "very difficult position," because cutting rates to support employment risks reigniting inflation. O'Leary added that management teams at companies he invests in, spanning all 11 S&P 500 sectors and mostly employing between 5 and 500 workers, are increasingly worried about rising input costs.

A Hiring Recession Takes Hold

California Gov. Gavin Newsom didn't mince words, sarcastically posting "Great work, @realDonaldTrump" while sharing analysis from Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. Long's numbers show 710,000 more Americans unemployed in November compared to the same month last year. Her conclusion? "The US economy is in a hiring recession."

Long attributed the deterioration to a "combination of tariff impacts, AI, and cost-cutting," all of which are now hurting American workers. It's a trifecta of economic headwinds, and the labor market is caught right in the middle.