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Nike's Turnaround Shows Promise But Q2 Earnings Face Steep Headwinds

MarketDash Editorial Team
11 hours ago
CEO Elliott Hill warns Nike's comeback won't be smooth sailing as tariffs and China weakness threaten margins, even as the company's 'Win Now' strategy gains traction in key categories.

Nike Inc. (NKE) is set to report second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on December 18, and CEO Elliott Hill has already set expectations with a dose of reality. The company's "journey back to greatness" won't follow a straight line, he says, which is exactly the kind of thing CEOs say when the numbers are about to get messy before they get better.

And messy they are. While Nike's strategic reset is generating real momentum in places that matter, the upcoming quarter is expected to show financial results moving in the wrong direction. It's the classic corporate turnaround paradox: doing the right things for the long term while watching short-term numbers take a hit.

The Strategic Reset is Actually Working

Nike's 'Win Now' strategy represents a meaningful shift in priorities. The company is laser-focused on three areas: Running, North America, and Wholesale channels. And there are legitimate "proof points" emerging from this approach.

The Running category absolutely exploded in the first quarter, jumping over 20%. That's not a rounding error. Revamped franchises like the Pegasus and Vomero are resonating with consumers again, which matters because Running is core to Nike's DNA. Meanwhile, the spring wholesale order book is trending upward, suggesting that retail partners who'd grown skeptical are starting to believe in the brand again.

But here's where it gets interesting: Nike is intentionally hurting its own sales in the near term. Management has deliberately reduced supply of perennial bestsellers like the Air Force 1 and Dunk. Why? To preserve brand health and prevent these classics from becoming so ubiquitous they lose their cool factor. It's the right call strategically, but it's dragging on immediate revenue. The company has also dialed back promotional activity, which has caused organic digital traffic to slow by double digits.

The Tariff Problem and China Blues

Even as Nike executes its strategic playbook, external forces are making life difficult. Management has guided for second-quarter revenue to decline in the low single digits, with gross margins taking a serious beating. We're talking about a contraction of 300 to 375 basis points, which is substantial.

Two culprits stand out. First, tariffs are projected to cost Nike a staggering $1.5 billion annually. That's real money that comes straight out of margins. Second, Greater China continues to be a problem child, with revenue down 10% last quarter. China weakness isn't new for Nike, but it's not getting better either.

Wall Street Wants More Proof

Analysts are watching closely but keeping their enthusiasm in check. Raymond James acknowledges that Nike could beat its conservative guidance, but they don't think that's enough to justify a higher stock valuation. What they want to see is a "clearer revenue and EBIT% inflection," meaning they need evidence that the turnaround is translating into sustained financial improvement, not just category-level wins.

Stifel maintains a 'Hold' rating and points out something important: at roughly 25 times FY27 earnings, Nike shares are already trading as if the recovery is a done deal. The market has priced in the happy ending before the story has actually played out. That creates a tricky situation where even solid progress might not move the stock much if it's already baked into expectations.

The key question for investors is whether the "Win Now" momentum can eventually overpower the macro headwinds. Nike is making the right strategic moves, but timing matters, and right now the headwinds are winning.

Stock Performance Tells the Story

Nike shares closed down 0.97% at $67.12 on Tuesday. The stock has gained 8.43% over the past six months, which sounds decent until you zoom out and see it's down 11.3% year-to-date. The technical picture is mixed: weak price trends over the medium and long term, but stronger momentum in the short term, coupled with a poor quality ranking.

Nike's turnaround is real, but it's also incomplete. The company is making hard choices that should pay off eventually, but "eventually" doesn't help much when tariffs are eating into margins and China sales keep sliding. Investors will be parsing every detail of Wednesday's earnings report looking for signs that the inflection point is getting closer. Until then, Wall Street is taking a wait-and-see approach, which seems entirely reasonable given the circumstances.

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Nike's Turnaround Shows Promise But Q2 Earnings Face Steep Headwinds

MarketDash Editorial Team
11 hours ago
CEO Elliott Hill warns Nike's comeback won't be smooth sailing as tariffs and China weakness threaten margins, even as the company's 'Win Now' strategy gains traction in key categories.

Nike Inc. (NKE) is set to report second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on December 18, and CEO Elliott Hill has already set expectations with a dose of reality. The company's "journey back to greatness" won't follow a straight line, he says, which is exactly the kind of thing CEOs say when the numbers are about to get messy before they get better.

And messy they are. While Nike's strategic reset is generating real momentum in places that matter, the upcoming quarter is expected to show financial results moving in the wrong direction. It's the classic corporate turnaround paradox: doing the right things for the long term while watching short-term numbers take a hit.

The Strategic Reset is Actually Working

Nike's 'Win Now' strategy represents a meaningful shift in priorities. The company is laser-focused on three areas: Running, North America, and Wholesale channels. And there are legitimate "proof points" emerging from this approach.

The Running category absolutely exploded in the first quarter, jumping over 20%. That's not a rounding error. Revamped franchises like the Pegasus and Vomero are resonating with consumers again, which matters because Running is core to Nike's DNA. Meanwhile, the spring wholesale order book is trending upward, suggesting that retail partners who'd grown skeptical are starting to believe in the brand again.

But here's where it gets interesting: Nike is intentionally hurting its own sales in the near term. Management has deliberately reduced supply of perennial bestsellers like the Air Force 1 and Dunk. Why? To preserve brand health and prevent these classics from becoming so ubiquitous they lose their cool factor. It's the right call strategically, but it's dragging on immediate revenue. The company has also dialed back promotional activity, which has caused organic digital traffic to slow by double digits.

The Tariff Problem and China Blues

Even as Nike executes its strategic playbook, external forces are making life difficult. Management has guided for second-quarter revenue to decline in the low single digits, with gross margins taking a serious beating. We're talking about a contraction of 300 to 375 basis points, which is substantial.

Two culprits stand out. First, tariffs are projected to cost Nike a staggering $1.5 billion annually. That's real money that comes straight out of margins. Second, Greater China continues to be a problem child, with revenue down 10% last quarter. China weakness isn't new for Nike, but it's not getting better either.

Wall Street Wants More Proof

Analysts are watching closely but keeping their enthusiasm in check. Raymond James acknowledges that Nike could beat its conservative guidance, but they don't think that's enough to justify a higher stock valuation. What they want to see is a "clearer revenue and EBIT% inflection," meaning they need evidence that the turnaround is translating into sustained financial improvement, not just category-level wins.

Stifel maintains a 'Hold' rating and points out something important: at roughly 25 times FY27 earnings, Nike shares are already trading as if the recovery is a done deal. The market has priced in the happy ending before the story has actually played out. That creates a tricky situation where even solid progress might not move the stock much if it's already baked into expectations.

The key question for investors is whether the "Win Now" momentum can eventually overpower the macro headwinds. Nike is making the right strategic moves, but timing matters, and right now the headwinds are winning.

Stock Performance Tells the Story

Nike shares closed down 0.97% at $67.12 on Tuesday. The stock has gained 8.43% over the past six months, which sounds decent until you zoom out and see it's down 11.3% year-to-date. The technical picture is mixed: weak price trends over the medium and long term, but stronger momentum in the short term, coupled with a poor quality ranking.

Nike's turnaround is real, but it's also incomplete. The company is making hard choices that should pay off eventually, but "eventually" doesn't help much when tariffs are eating into margins and China sales keep sliding. Investors will be parsing every detail of Wednesday's earnings report looking for signs that the inflection point is getting closer. Until then, Wall Street is taking a wait-and-see approach, which seems entirely reasonable given the circumstances.

    Nike's Turnaround Shows Promise But Q2 Earnings Face Steep Headwinds - MarketDash News