If you're waiting for Bitcoin (BTC) to suddenly snap back to life, analyst Benjamin Cowen has some bad news: you might be waiting a while. Maybe several months, in fact.
Cowen argues that Bitcoin is entering what he calls the "Bear Market Blues," a prolonged stretch where prices drift lower amid general investor apathy. Think less dramatic crash, more slow-motion bleed.
The 2019 Playbook All Over Again
In a recent podcast, Cowen drew parallels to 2019, when Bitcoin topped out just as quantitative tightening was ending. Sound familiar? With QT winding down again now, he believes history is rhyming in an uncomfortable way. The four-year cycle precedent, he says, points toward more downside rather than an immediate bounce.
What makes this cycle different is the mood. Previous peaks featured retail euphoria, altcoin mania, and wild speculation. This time? Mostly indifference. That lack of frothy excess means the drawdown feels heavier and slower. Cowen warns that, just like in 2019, Bitcoin could keep bleeding for months even after QT officially ends.
He sees a strong likelihood of a liquidity sweep down toward the ~$74,000 lows, followed by a grind lower toward the 200-week simple moving average, currently sitting between $60,000 and $70,000.
Taking Cues From Nvidia's Recent Pattern
Cowen pointed to a pattern recently observed in Nvidia: make a low, sweep that low to shake out weak hands, then rally. Bitcoin's recent three-week bounce was notably weak, about half the strength of similar countertrend rallies seen in 2022. That suggests it might just be a pause before another leg down.
His base case scenario involves a sweep of the $74,000 area to flush out weak hands, a countertrend rally in early 2026, and potentially a final lower low by mid-2026. The 200-week simple moving average remains the ultimate gravitational pull for where a real bottom might form.
Patience Pays, But It Takes Time
Don't expect a V-shaped recovery, Cowen cautions. The "Bear Market Blues" could drag on another 100 to 120 days, with a more durable bottom potentially forming around April or May 2026. Catalysts could include a shift in Fed leadership or aggressive rate cuts, but for now, patience is the play.
His advice is straightforward: "Trade the market you have, not the market you want." While the near-term outlook stays bearish, Cowen emphasizes that generational wealth gets built during these periods of apathy by accumulating when sentiment is dead, not by chasing rallies.
The investors who made real money this cycle were the ones who bought the 2022 lows. If Cowen's right, the market is setting up a similar opportunity for those with patient capital and strong stomachs.