Saia, Inc. (SAIA) stock dropped Wednesday despite an analyst price target increase, highlighting the tension between rocky near-term freight trends and optimism about the company's ambitious national expansion strategy.
The trucking company's fourth-quarter operating data, released earlier this month, painted a choppy picture. October saw LTL shipments and tonnage per workday decline year over year, though weight per shipment ticked slightly higher. November reversed some of that weakness with shipments and tonnage rising, but weight per shipment slipped compared to the prior year. December is expected to come in softer, according to analysts.
Analyst Sees Long-Term Value Despite Near-Term Noise
Bank of America Securities analyst Ken Hoexter maintained his Neutral rating on Saia but bumped the price target from $322 to $367, signaling confidence in the carrier's transformation into a nationwide player. The new target reflects a higher 2026 earnings multiple of 33x, up from 29x, sitting slightly above Saia's five-year historical range.
Hoexter pointed out that Saia's mid-quarter update revealed sub-seasonal tons per day performance, with October's weakness largely offsetting November's gains. The company is managing through what he called "mix headwinds," particularly from its largest revenue market.
Los Angeles Drags, Shorter Hauls Dominate Growth
The unfavorable freight mix continues to challenge the company. Los Angeles volumes, Saia's biggest revenue market, remain down nearly 20% year over year. Meanwhile, growth is coming primarily from shorter, lower-revenue shipping lanes as the company expands its national footprint, a departure from its historical focus on longer-haul routes that generate higher revenue per shipment.
Customers Gaining Confidence About 2026
There's a silver lining in customer behavior. Hoexter noted that customers are now discussing 2026 contract levels with greater certainty, citing stabilizing factors like tax policy, interest rates, and tariff expectations. That improved visibility suggests the freight market may be finding its footing after an extended period of uncertainty.
Interestingly, Saia still isn't seeing meaningful freight shifting from truckload carriers into the LTL sector, despite tightening truckload capacity. Hoexter attributed truckload market pressure to regulatory enforcement, equipment constraints, declining truck orders, and an uptick in carrier bankruptcies.
Operating Metrics Hold Steady
Management maintained its fourth-quarter operating ratio target, though it expects a larger seasonal deterioration than historical averages. Hoexter kept his operating ratio forecast unchanged, acknowledging that Saia continues to outperform competitors on tons-per-day growth even while expanding its network.
The company has added 39 new terminals since 2022 as part of its transition into a national carrier. The analyst's earnings expectations remain unchanged at $1.88 per share for Q4 2025 and $11.10 for full-year 2026. The higher valuation multiple accounts for improving yields and network integration as the expansion strategy matures.
SAIA Price Action: Saia shares traded down 2.05% at $332.82 at the time of publication Wednesday.