When someone makes half a million dollars betting against something, you'd think they might move on. Not Taiki Maeda. The crypto analyst who successfully shorted Ethereum (ETH) is back for round two, this time with a $1 million short position opened near $3,133.
His thesis? The altcoin's recent outperformance isn't what it seems. According to Maeda's recent podcast, Ethereum is being artificially propped up by "Digital Asset Treasury" buyers rather than genuine market demand. And he's betting big that this won't last.
The BitMine Connection
Maeda points to a specific culprit: BitMine (BMNR), which he claims has been buying roughly $300 million worth of ETH every week. This massive, price-insensitive accumulation is allegedly the primary driver behind Ethereum's relative strength compared to other altcoins.
But here's where it gets interesting. According to Maeda's reading of SEC filings, this buying spree isn't about long-term conviction. Instead, it's tied to executive compensation, with bonuses and equity grants contingent on ETH accumulation and hitting specific price targets ahead of a January 15 board meeting.
To put the current price in perspective, Maeda notes that Ethereum was trading near $1,600 the last time Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $85,000. The implication? This isn't new money flooding into crypto; it's just capital rotation within the ecosystem.
The January 15 Deadline
Maeda's short bet hinges on a specific date. He expects the incentive-driven buying to evaporate after January 15, when BitMine's bonus conditions expire. Once these temporary buyers disappear, he believes Ethereum will fall toward what he considers its "fair value," which could be substantially lower than current levels.
Making matters potentially worse, Maeda flags another risk converging on the same date: a separate Strategy (MSTR) deadline that could trigger broader risk-off sentiment across crypto markets.
Despite his bearish price stance, Maeda emphasizes he's bullish on Ethereum's underlying technology. His issue is with the token's valuation, which he sees as completely disconnected from fundamentals. He's urging investors to ignore the popular "Q4 altseason" narrative and prepare for reality.
His bottom line is simple: when the artificial buying pressure stops, gravity takes over.