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Low-Beta ETFs Gain Momentum as JPMorgan Warns of Overcrowded AI Stocks

MarketDash Editorial Team
19 hours ago
JPMorgan's warning about extreme crowding in speculative AI and growth stocks is sending investors toward low-volatility ETFs that offer equity exposure without the elevated risk of momentum trades.

When the market gets choppy, it's worth remembering that not all equity exposure is created equal. Low-volatility ETFs are having a moment right now, and for good reason: JPMorgan strategists are raising red flags about "extreme crowding" in speculative growth stocks and second-order AI plays.

The basic thesis here is straightforward. Too many investors have piled into the same momentum trades, pushing valuations and risk to levels that make strategists nervous. When everyone is on the same side of the boat, someone usually ends up in the water. Low-volatility ETFs, which target stocks with betas below 1, are designed precisely for this kind of environment.

JPMorgan specifically flagged several names that could face sharp reversals if market conditions deteriorate: Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL), Invesco Ltd. (IVZ), Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE), and Nucor Corp. (NUE). Many of these stocks have already dropped significantly since early this month, suggesting that momentum trades may already be unwinding.

The message from JPMorgan isn't to abandon equities altogether. It's about rethinking how you get your exposure. Instead of chasing high-beta momentum plays, the bank prefers less-volatile, cash-generating stalwarts. That's exactly what low-volatility ETFs deliver.

Consider the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), which carries a beta of just 0.61, or the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF (USMV), with a beta of 0.76. These funds deliberately tilt toward stocks with lower historical price variability. They overweight sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, utilities, and telecommunications. Holdings include names like Cigna Group (CI), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), and Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), all of which JPMorgan identifies as having favorable risk-reward profiles in the current environment.

What makes low-volatility ETFs particularly interesting is how they rebalance. Unlike momentum or growth ETFs that can become dangerously crowded during strong rallies, these funds use risk-based measures rather than price momentum to select holdings. When market leadership narrows and investors start questioning valuations in the high-beta corners of the market, this approach becomes especially valuable.

Dividend-focused ETFs offer another avenue for reducing risk while staying invested. The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) and the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) are gaining traction as they provide both income and lower volatility. These funds carry betas of 0.84 and 0.74 respectively, according to market data. They let you collect dividends while avoiding the most speculative parts of the market.

None of this necessarily signals the end of the AI trade. What it does indicate is growing selectivity among investors who recognize that not every AI-linked stock deserves a sky-high multiple. The sector has winners and losers, and the undifferentiated buying that characterized earlier phases of the AI boom appears to be giving way to something more discriminating.

Low-volatility ETFs give investors a way to maintain equity exposure without taking positions in the most crowded trades. They're not exciting, and they won't double overnight. But when strategists start using phrases like "extreme crowding" and warning about reversals, boring starts to sound pretty attractive. The goal isn't to time the market perfectly. It's to stay in the game without exposing yourself to unnecessary risk when the consensus trade gets too consensus.

Back to News

Low-Beta ETFs Gain Momentum as JPMorgan Warns of Overcrowded AI Stocks

MarketDash Editorial Team
19 hours ago
JPMorgan's warning about extreme crowding in speculative AI and growth stocks is sending investors toward low-volatility ETFs that offer equity exposure without the elevated risk of momentum trades.

When the market gets choppy, it's worth remembering that not all equity exposure is created equal. Low-volatility ETFs are having a moment right now, and for good reason: JPMorgan strategists are raising red flags about "extreme crowding" in speculative growth stocks and second-order AI plays.

The basic thesis here is straightforward. Too many investors have piled into the same momentum trades, pushing valuations and risk to levels that make strategists nervous. When everyone is on the same side of the boat, someone usually ends up in the water. Low-volatility ETFs, which target stocks with betas below 1, are designed precisely for this kind of environment.

JPMorgan specifically flagged several names that could face sharp reversals if market conditions deteriorate: Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL), Invesco Ltd. (IVZ), Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE), and Nucor Corp. (NUE). Many of these stocks have already dropped significantly since early this month, suggesting that momentum trades may already be unwinding.

The message from JPMorgan isn't to abandon equities altogether. It's about rethinking how you get your exposure. Instead of chasing high-beta momentum plays, the bank prefers less-volatile, cash-generating stalwarts. That's exactly what low-volatility ETFs deliver.

Consider the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), which carries a beta of just 0.61, or the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF (USMV), with a beta of 0.76. These funds deliberately tilt toward stocks with lower historical price variability. They overweight sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, utilities, and telecommunications. Holdings include names like Cigna Group (CI), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), and Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), all of which JPMorgan identifies as having favorable risk-reward profiles in the current environment.

What makes low-volatility ETFs particularly interesting is how they rebalance. Unlike momentum or growth ETFs that can become dangerously crowded during strong rallies, these funds use risk-based measures rather than price momentum to select holdings. When market leadership narrows and investors start questioning valuations in the high-beta corners of the market, this approach becomes especially valuable.

Dividend-focused ETFs offer another avenue for reducing risk while staying invested. The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) and the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) are gaining traction as they provide both income and lower volatility. These funds carry betas of 0.84 and 0.74 respectively, according to market data. They let you collect dividends while avoiding the most speculative parts of the market.

None of this necessarily signals the end of the AI trade. What it does indicate is growing selectivity among investors who recognize that not every AI-linked stock deserves a sky-high multiple. The sector has winners and losers, and the undifferentiated buying that characterized earlier phases of the AI boom appears to be giving way to something more discriminating.

Low-volatility ETFs give investors a way to maintain equity exposure without taking positions in the most crowded trades. They're not exciting, and they won't double overnight. But when strategists start using phrases like "extreme crowding" and warning about reversals, boring starts to sound pretty attractive. The goal isn't to time the market perfectly. It's to stay in the game without exposing yourself to unnecessary risk when the consensus trade gets too consensus.