Here's an interesting analyst call: the price target gets slashed by 30%, but the message is actually bullish. Welcome to Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN), where the short-term pain and long-term vision are pulling in opposite directions.

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch maintained his Overweight rating on Coinbase after the company's System Update event Wednesday, but he dropped his price target from $459 down to $320. The reason? Current crypto sentiment is weak, and he expects lower trading volumes through 2026 to reflect that reality.

But here's where it gets interesting. Knoblauch thinks investors are completely missing the point if they're judging Coinbase solely on today's revenue mix. The company is racing to become what it calls the "Everything Exchange," and Wednesday's announcements show they're serious about it.

Beyond Bitcoin Trading

Coinbase rolled out a bunch of new products that have nothing to do with just buying and selling crypto. The app now has a dedicated section for stock trading. There's a new prediction markets tab where users can buy event contracts covering crypto, news, sports, and entertainment. The platform added crypto derivatives trading. And users can now access millions of tokens through in-app DeFi trading, including on Solana.

"We believe investors looking at today's revenue/profitability mix, and not what COIN will look like in five years are significantly missing the big picture," Knoblauch wrote.

The thesis is straightforward: yes, Coinbase has been a cyclical crypto trading platform that rises and falls with Bitcoin sentiment. But the company is "well on its way to no longer being just" that, according to the analyst. The question is whether you're betting on what Coinbase is today or what it's trying to become.

Shares of Coinbase were up 1.47% to $247.77 at the time of publication Thursday.