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The Inflation Report Everyone's Questioning: 'Totally Inexcusable'

MarketDash Editorial Team
17 hours ago
November's CPI showed inflation cooling to 2.7%, sparking a stock rally. But economists say government shutdown distortions make the data nearly worthless, especially the shelter numbers that drive a third of the index.

Here's the thing about November's inflation report: it's not that the number came in low. It's that nobody's quite sure the number means anything at all.

The Consumer Price Index showed annual inflation slowing to 2.7% in November from 3% in September. Great news, right? Markets certainly thought so. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) jumped nearly 2%, and traders started pricing in at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts for next year.

But here's where things get messy. The federal government shutdown halted data collection in October, forcing the Bureau of Labor Statistics to improvise. And economists are now arguing that the improvisation created distortions so significant that the whole report should come with a giant asterisk.

At the center of the controversy sits shelter inflation, which tracks rents and what homeowners would pay to rent their own homes. This category alone represents roughly one-third of the entire CPI basket, so when shelter numbers move, they move the whole index.

Because the BLS couldn't collect October survey data, it simply carried forward September's levels. Effectively, it assumed zero inflation for the missing month, then compressed shelter price increases into November. The result? Shelter inflation that looks artificially cool, and a headline number that economists say is about as reliable as navigating in sunglasses at night.

The Technical Problem That Has Everyone Upset

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius laid out exactly why this matters. Rent and owners' equivalent rent calculations rely on a six-month rotating panel, he explained. That means November's monthly increase reflects an average of price changes going back to May, applied to an October index level that the BLS just assumed was flat compared to September.

"The shelter components only increased by one month's worth of rent inflation between September and November," Hatzius said. In other words, the methodology likely understated what's actually happening with housing costs.

And here's the kicker: the same methodological choices that artificially depressed November's numbers are likely to create artificial spikes later. "Today's reading could be partially offset by a rebound in the shelter components in the April CPI, six months after October," Hatzius warned.

Omair Sharif, founder and president of Inflation Insights, didn't mince words. He called the BLS approach "totally inexcusable." The shelter numbers only work if you actually believe October inflation was zero, which nobody does.

"I am sure they have a good technical explanation for this," Sharif said, "but there is just no world in which this was a good idea."

Jason Furman, a Harvard professor and former Obama administration economist, also criticized the shelter calculation as a "big judgment error" that likely pushed inflation numbers below reality. But he pushed back on any suggestion of political motivation. "If anything, the opposite," he said. "They stuck to algorithm rather than using judgment."

Beyond Shelter: More Data Collection Problems

The distortions aren't limited to housing. According to Truflation, a real-time inflation data provider, there are signs of incomplete sampling and missing data across multiple categories, partly because price collection didn't even start until November 14.

Some regional data appear to be completely absent, while other areas show suspiciously sharp declines. Food at home inflation dropped from 2.7% year over year in September to just 1.9% in November. Truflation described that move as "difficult to reconcile with observed pricing trends."

Services inflation also fell sharply, from 3.5% to 3%, driven partly by a reported 4.1% year-over-year decline in hotel lodging prices. That result, Truflation noted, conflicts with both private-sector data and what the industry is actually reporting.

"Sampling and data collection questions raise validity on the data for this month," the firm said, identifying food and shelter as the largest outliers.

What This Means for Markets and the Fed

Despite the market's enthusiastic response to the headline cooling, most economists are urging caution. The November print tells us more about what happens when you try to patch together inflation data during a government shutdown than it does about underlying price pressures.

For investors and policymakers alike, the takeaway is straightforward: don't read too much into this one. December's data and early 2026 releases will be far more revealing about whether inflation is actually continuing to cool, or whether November was just a statistical mirage created by missing data and questionable methodological choices.

Back to News

The Inflation Report Everyone's Questioning: 'Totally Inexcusable'

MarketDash Editorial Team
17 hours ago
November's CPI showed inflation cooling to 2.7%, sparking a stock rally. But economists say government shutdown distortions make the data nearly worthless, especially the shelter numbers that drive a third of the index.

Here's the thing about November's inflation report: it's not that the number came in low. It's that nobody's quite sure the number means anything at all.

The Consumer Price Index showed annual inflation slowing to 2.7% in November from 3% in September. Great news, right? Markets certainly thought so. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) jumped nearly 2%, and traders started pricing in at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts for next year.

But here's where things get messy. The federal government shutdown halted data collection in October, forcing the Bureau of Labor Statistics to improvise. And economists are now arguing that the improvisation created distortions so significant that the whole report should come with a giant asterisk.

At the center of the controversy sits shelter inflation, which tracks rents and what homeowners would pay to rent their own homes. This category alone represents roughly one-third of the entire CPI basket, so when shelter numbers move, they move the whole index.

Because the BLS couldn't collect October survey data, it simply carried forward September's levels. Effectively, it assumed zero inflation for the missing month, then compressed shelter price increases into November. The result? Shelter inflation that looks artificially cool, and a headline number that economists say is about as reliable as navigating in sunglasses at night.

The Technical Problem That Has Everyone Upset

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius laid out exactly why this matters. Rent and owners' equivalent rent calculations rely on a six-month rotating panel, he explained. That means November's monthly increase reflects an average of price changes going back to May, applied to an October index level that the BLS just assumed was flat compared to September.

"The shelter components only increased by one month's worth of rent inflation between September and November," Hatzius said. In other words, the methodology likely understated what's actually happening with housing costs.

And here's the kicker: the same methodological choices that artificially depressed November's numbers are likely to create artificial spikes later. "Today's reading could be partially offset by a rebound in the shelter components in the April CPI, six months after October," Hatzius warned.

Omair Sharif, founder and president of Inflation Insights, didn't mince words. He called the BLS approach "totally inexcusable." The shelter numbers only work if you actually believe October inflation was zero, which nobody does.

"I am sure they have a good technical explanation for this," Sharif said, "but there is just no world in which this was a good idea."

Jason Furman, a Harvard professor and former Obama administration economist, also criticized the shelter calculation as a "big judgment error" that likely pushed inflation numbers below reality. But he pushed back on any suggestion of political motivation. "If anything, the opposite," he said. "They stuck to algorithm rather than using judgment."

Beyond Shelter: More Data Collection Problems

The distortions aren't limited to housing. According to Truflation, a real-time inflation data provider, there are signs of incomplete sampling and missing data across multiple categories, partly because price collection didn't even start until November 14.

Some regional data appear to be completely absent, while other areas show suspiciously sharp declines. Food at home inflation dropped from 2.7% year over year in September to just 1.9% in November. Truflation described that move as "difficult to reconcile with observed pricing trends."

Services inflation also fell sharply, from 3.5% to 3%, driven partly by a reported 4.1% year-over-year decline in hotel lodging prices. That result, Truflation noted, conflicts with both private-sector data and what the industry is actually reporting.

"Sampling and data collection questions raise validity on the data for this month," the firm said, identifying food and shelter as the largest outliers.

What This Means for Markets and the Fed

Despite the market's enthusiastic response to the headline cooling, most economists are urging caution. The November print tells us more about what happens when you try to patch together inflation data during a government shutdown than it does about underlying price pressures.

For investors and policymakers alike, the takeaway is straightforward: don't read too much into this one. December's data and early 2026 releases will be far more revealing about whether inflation is actually continuing to cool, or whether November was just a statistical mirage created by missing data and questionable methodological choices.