Carnival Corporation (CCL) reports fourth-quarter earnings Friday morning, and the cruise operator has some work to do. Not because business is bad—quite the opposite, actually—but because investors have gotten nervous about consumer spending and sent cruise stocks tumbling despite pretty solid fundamentals.

Here's the setup: Carnival has been on an absolute tear when it comes to beating Wall Street's numbers. The company has topped earnings-per-share estimates for more than 10 straight quarters and beat revenue estimates in six consecutive quarters and nine of the last ten. That's consistency you don't see every day, especially compared to rivals who've been more hit-or-miss lately.

What Wall Street Expects

Analysts are looking for fourth-quarter revenue of $6.37 billion, up from $5.94 billion in the same period last year. On the earnings front, expectations are set at 25 cents per share, nearly double the 14 cents reported a year ago.

Given Carnival's recent track record, those estimates feel almost conservative. But the real question isn't whether the company beats by a penny or two—it's what management says about the future.

The Cruise Industry Anxiety

JPMorgan analyst Matthew R. Boss recently pointed out something interesting: cruise stocks have gotten hammered without much evidence of actual trouble. Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) are all down more than 20% since September.

The market seems worried about two things: too many cruise ships hitting the Caribbean all at once, and a potential consumer slowdown in 2026. Boss argues that these concerns don't match reality, especially given the strong bookings being reported for early 2026. It's possible investors are panicking without waiting for the data to catch up.

Analyst sentiment on Carnival remains largely positive, with recent price target adjustments reflecting cautious optimism:

• UBS: Buy rating, price target raised from $35 to $37
• Barclays: Overweight rating, price target lowered from $37 to $36
• Susquehanna: Positive rating, price target raised from $35 to $40
• Jefferies: Buy rating, price target raised from $35 to $37
• Wells Fargo: Overweight rating, price target raised from $34 to $35

How Carnival Stacks Up Against Rivals

Norwegian Cruise Line reported third-quarter results in November that showed some cracks. While earnings beat estimates, revenue missed, and that's been a pattern—three straight quarters of revenue misses. That report spooked investors and dragged down Carnival shares by association.

Royal Caribbean reported October results that beat on earnings but missed on revenue. The company has been more consistent on the earnings side with five straight beats, but revenue has disappointed in three of the last four quarters.

Carnival stands out here because it's been beating on both metrics consistently. That matters when investors are trying to figure out which cruise operator can actually deliver on its promises.

The Case for Optimism

Carnival's third-quarter report showed customer deposits hitting a record $7.1 billion, which is basically future revenue sitting in the bank. CEO Josh Weinstein highlighted record revenue and net income alongside what he called "strong demand." More importantly, he noted that nearly half of 2026 was already booked at historically high prices across several segments. Even 2027 bookings were off to a strong start.

The company raised its guidance three times in 2025, which suggests management has consistently underestimated how strong demand would be. Friday's report should provide 2026 guidance, and that's what investors are really waiting for. Can Carnival show that momentum continues, or are we finally seeing signs of consumer fatigue?

There's also the marketing angle. Carnival recently had a float in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade promoting its Alaska cruises. It's a smart move to boost awareness of routes that might not get as much attention as Caribbean getaways.

Where Shares Stand

Carnival stock closed Thursday at $28.26, sitting comfortably within its 52-week range of $15.07 to $32.86. Shares are up 13.0% year-to-date in 2025, which puts the company somewhere in the middle when you look at the broader cruise sector. Norwegian is down 16.6% this year, while Royal Caribbean has surged 25.3%.

The bottom line: Carnival has the numbers and the booking strength to reassure investors that consumer demand isn't falling off a cliff. But in this market, it's not enough to just beat estimates—the company needs to tell a convincing story about why 2026 and beyond should look just as good.