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Bitcoin Could Hit $1.4 Million By 2035, According To New Three-Pillar Valuation Framework

MarketDash Editorial Team
10 hours ago
A Kraken-backed research firm has laid out a detailed roadmap for Bitcoin potentially reaching $1.4 million by 2035, using a three-part framework that examines store-of-value dynamics, production costs, and global liquidity trends. The projection suggests Bitcoin could capture up to a third of gold's market share while volatility continues declining.

The case for Bitcoin is evolving from pure speculation into something that looks more like structured optimism. CF Benchmarks, a research firm backed by cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, just released a report projecting that Bitcoin (BTC) could climb to $1.4 million by 2035. That's not a typo, and it's not based on vibes alone.

The Store-Of-Value Thesis Takes Center Stage

Gabriel Selby and Mark Pilipczuk, the analysts behind the report, built their case around a three-part framework that treats Bitcoin less like a lottery ticket and more like a maturing asset with predictable drivers. The first pillar is comparative store-of-value analysis, which essentially asks: what happens if Bitcoin starts eating gold's lunch?

The global store-of-value market is worth roughly $30 trillion today, with gold claiming the lion's share. CF Benchmarks modeled scenarios where Bitcoin captures between 17% and 33% of gold's market cap over the next decade. When you run a probability-weighted blend across those outcomes, you land at a base-case target near $1.42 million per Bitcoin. That implies annualized returns around 30%, which would be spectacular if you're a believer and terrifying if you're not.

The analysts argue that Bitcoin offers an "asymmetrical return profile" that sets it apart from traditional assets, particularly as institutional players get more comfortable holding it. The thesis isn't just about retail hype anymore; it's about pension funds, endowments, and treasury departments starting to view Bitcoin as a legitimate portfolio component.

Production Costs Are Building A Rising Floor

The second pillar treats Bitcoin like a commodity, similar to how you'd think about gold or oil. Production costs matter because they tend to establish a baseline below which prices struggle to stay for long.

Right now, CF Benchmarks estimates it costs somewhere between $40,000 and $50,000 to mine one Bitcoin. That figure isn't static. Bitcoin's halving events, which occur every four years, cut the rate of new supply in half. Meanwhile, mining difficulty increases as more computing power joins the network. Both dynamics push production costs higher over time.

The report assumes mining growth will slow, hardware efficiency will improve, and energy costs will keep climbing. Under those conditions, the model suggests Bitcoin's price could exceed $1 million within the next ten years. Historically, when Bitcoin trades near or below its production cost, it's marked strong buying opportunities. Prices tend to recover once the economics of mining tighten up and unprofitable miners exit.

Global Liquidity Patterns Point To Future Gains

The third pillar connects Bitcoin's price to global M2 money supply, which measures the total amount of money sloshing around in the financial system, including cash, bank deposits, and savings accounts. When M2 expands, there's more capital looking for a home.

CF Benchmarks found that Bitcoin typically rallies a few months after M2 increases, and during those periods, Bitcoin's price often grows faster than the money supply itself. This helps explain why Bitcoin tends to perform best when financial conditions are loose and liquidity is abundant.

The report also highlights that Bitcoin's notorious volatility is declining. The analysts expect Bitcoin's price swings to fall to around 28% by 2035, down from the triple-digit volatility seen in its early days. Selby and Pilipczuk attribute this trend to deeper liquidity, greater institutional participation, and continued maturation of derivatives markets.

They noted that even modest portfolio allocations could meaningfully improve risk-adjusted returns. "Even at 2% to 5% portfolio weights, Bitcoin improves long-term risk-adjusted returns and expands the efficient frontier," the analysts wrote. Translation: a small Bitcoin position could boost overall portfolio performance without taking on excessive risk.

CF Benchmarks Isn't Alone In The Million-Dollar Club

Seven-figure Bitcoin predictions are becoming less fringe and more mainstream, at least within crypto circles. Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong said earlier this year that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, citing regulatory clarity, growing ETF adoption, and the possibility of U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has floated similar targets, while Eric Trump predicted a $1 million Bitcoin during remarks at a Federal Reserve-related event in August. Strategy Inc. (MSTR) CEO Phong Le has suggested that nation-state adoption could trigger a major Bitcoin buying cycle as early as 2026.

The common thread across these forecasts isn't blind optimism. It's the belief that Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to an institutional one, and that shift could unlock demand at a scale we haven't seen yet.

Macro Conditions Are Looking Favorable

Long-term bulls point to a confluence of supportive factors: expanding liquidity, productivity gains tied to artificial intelligence, and rising institutional comfort with digital assets. Economist Ed Yardeni has described the U.S. economy as entering the steepest phase of a "Roaring 2020s" cycle, a backdrop that historically favors risk assets.

That said, Bitcoin remains approximately 30% below its October all-time high near $126,000. There's still a significant gap between these long-term projections and current market reality.

Technical Picture Shows Compression Despite Recent Bounce

Bitcoin rebounded more than 3% intraday recently, but the broader structure remains constrained. The $87,000 to $88,000 zone is functioning as a key balance area, aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.

Overhead resistance sits near $90,900 to $91,000, where the 0.382 retracement converges with a descending trendline. The Supertrend indicator remains above price near $89,600, signaling that trend control hasn't flipped bullish yet.

A sustained close above $91,000 would reopen the $94,000 to $97,000 zone and suggest renewed upside momentum. Conversely, a loss of $87,000 would expose the rising base near $84,000 and reintroduce meaningful downside risk.

Whether Bitcoin reaches $1.4 million or not, the framework behind these projections is getting more sophisticated. The conversation is shifting from "will it moon?" to "under what conditions could this actually happen?" That's progress, even if the price targets still sound wild.

Back to News

Bitcoin Could Hit $1.4 Million By 2035, According To New Three-Pillar Valuation Framework

MarketDash Editorial Team
10 hours ago
A Kraken-backed research firm has laid out a detailed roadmap for Bitcoin potentially reaching $1.4 million by 2035, using a three-part framework that examines store-of-value dynamics, production costs, and global liquidity trends. The projection suggests Bitcoin could capture up to a third of gold's market share while volatility continues declining.

The case for Bitcoin is evolving from pure speculation into something that looks more like structured optimism. CF Benchmarks, a research firm backed by cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, just released a report projecting that Bitcoin (BTC) could climb to $1.4 million by 2035. That's not a typo, and it's not based on vibes alone.

The Store-Of-Value Thesis Takes Center Stage

Gabriel Selby and Mark Pilipczuk, the analysts behind the report, built their case around a three-part framework that treats Bitcoin less like a lottery ticket and more like a maturing asset with predictable drivers. The first pillar is comparative store-of-value analysis, which essentially asks: what happens if Bitcoin starts eating gold's lunch?

The global store-of-value market is worth roughly $30 trillion today, with gold claiming the lion's share. CF Benchmarks modeled scenarios where Bitcoin captures between 17% and 33% of gold's market cap over the next decade. When you run a probability-weighted blend across those outcomes, you land at a base-case target near $1.42 million per Bitcoin. That implies annualized returns around 30%, which would be spectacular if you're a believer and terrifying if you're not.

The analysts argue that Bitcoin offers an "asymmetrical return profile" that sets it apart from traditional assets, particularly as institutional players get more comfortable holding it. The thesis isn't just about retail hype anymore; it's about pension funds, endowments, and treasury departments starting to view Bitcoin as a legitimate portfolio component.

Production Costs Are Building A Rising Floor

The second pillar treats Bitcoin like a commodity, similar to how you'd think about gold or oil. Production costs matter because they tend to establish a baseline below which prices struggle to stay for long.

Right now, CF Benchmarks estimates it costs somewhere between $40,000 and $50,000 to mine one Bitcoin. That figure isn't static. Bitcoin's halving events, which occur every four years, cut the rate of new supply in half. Meanwhile, mining difficulty increases as more computing power joins the network. Both dynamics push production costs higher over time.

The report assumes mining growth will slow, hardware efficiency will improve, and energy costs will keep climbing. Under those conditions, the model suggests Bitcoin's price could exceed $1 million within the next ten years. Historically, when Bitcoin trades near or below its production cost, it's marked strong buying opportunities. Prices tend to recover once the economics of mining tighten up and unprofitable miners exit.

Global Liquidity Patterns Point To Future Gains

The third pillar connects Bitcoin's price to global M2 money supply, which measures the total amount of money sloshing around in the financial system, including cash, bank deposits, and savings accounts. When M2 expands, there's more capital looking for a home.

CF Benchmarks found that Bitcoin typically rallies a few months after M2 increases, and during those periods, Bitcoin's price often grows faster than the money supply itself. This helps explain why Bitcoin tends to perform best when financial conditions are loose and liquidity is abundant.

The report also highlights that Bitcoin's notorious volatility is declining. The analysts expect Bitcoin's price swings to fall to around 28% by 2035, down from the triple-digit volatility seen in its early days. Selby and Pilipczuk attribute this trend to deeper liquidity, greater institutional participation, and continued maturation of derivatives markets.

They noted that even modest portfolio allocations could meaningfully improve risk-adjusted returns. "Even at 2% to 5% portfolio weights, Bitcoin improves long-term risk-adjusted returns and expands the efficient frontier," the analysts wrote. Translation: a small Bitcoin position could boost overall portfolio performance without taking on excessive risk.

CF Benchmarks Isn't Alone In The Million-Dollar Club

Seven-figure Bitcoin predictions are becoming less fringe and more mainstream, at least within crypto circles. Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong said earlier this year that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, citing regulatory clarity, growing ETF adoption, and the possibility of U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has floated similar targets, while Eric Trump predicted a $1 million Bitcoin during remarks at a Federal Reserve-related event in August. Strategy Inc. (MSTR) CEO Phong Le has suggested that nation-state adoption could trigger a major Bitcoin buying cycle as early as 2026.

The common thread across these forecasts isn't blind optimism. It's the belief that Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to an institutional one, and that shift could unlock demand at a scale we haven't seen yet.

Macro Conditions Are Looking Favorable

Long-term bulls point to a confluence of supportive factors: expanding liquidity, productivity gains tied to artificial intelligence, and rising institutional comfort with digital assets. Economist Ed Yardeni has described the U.S. economy as entering the steepest phase of a "Roaring 2020s" cycle, a backdrop that historically favors risk assets.

That said, Bitcoin remains approximately 30% below its October all-time high near $126,000. There's still a significant gap between these long-term projections and current market reality.

Technical Picture Shows Compression Despite Recent Bounce

Bitcoin rebounded more than 3% intraday recently, but the broader structure remains constrained. The $87,000 to $88,000 zone is functioning as a key balance area, aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.

Overhead resistance sits near $90,900 to $91,000, where the 0.382 retracement converges with a descending trendline. The Supertrend indicator remains above price near $89,600, signaling that trend control hasn't flipped bullish yet.

A sustained close above $91,000 would reopen the $94,000 to $97,000 zone and suggest renewed upside momentum. Conversely, a loss of $87,000 would expose the rising base near $84,000 and reintroduce meaningful downside risk.

Whether Bitcoin reaches $1.4 million or not, the framework behind these projections is getting more sophisticated. The conversation is shifting from "will it moon?" to "under what conditions could this actually happen?" That's progress, even if the price targets still sound wild.