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Defense Tech and Space Stocks Surge as KeyBanc Sees a Decade-Long Growth Wave

MarketDash Editorial Team
6 hours ago
KeyBanc Capital Markets just launched coverage of six space and defense technology companies, and the market liked what it heard. The firm sees this sector becoming one of the hottest growth areas in aerospace over the next ten years, driven by geopolitical tensions, AI-powered warfare, and the expanding commercial space economy.

When KeyBanc Capital Markets drops coverage on a bunch of space and defense companies all at once, and the stocks immediately shoot higher, you know Wall Street is paying attention. Several space and defense technology stocks moved sharply higher on Friday after KeyBanc initiated coverage across the group, with investors reacting enthusiastically to bullish long-term growth commentary and newly established price forecasts.

The big picture here is pretty straightforward: KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock thinks Space & Defense Technology could emerge as one of the strongest growth segments within Aerospace & Defense over the next decade. That's not just analyst speak. He's pointing to some pretty concrete catalysts.

First, there's the geopolitical environment. Elevated tensions globally mean rising defense budgets across multiple countries. Second, warfare itself is evolving rapidly, particularly around drones, AI-enabled systems, and missile defense initiatives like "Golden Dome." And third, the commercialization of space is broadening demand across launch services, lunar missions, satellite manufacturing, and defense-linked data applications.

It's a compelling thesis. But Leshock emphasized a selective approach, favoring companies with clear catalysts and durable exposure to high-priority end markets. Not every company in the space gets the same treatment.

Breaking Down the Coverage: Who Got What Rating

KeyBanc initiated Overweight ratings on Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN), AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV), Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS), and Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR), while assigning Sector Weight ratings to Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) and Redwire Corporation (RDW).

The coverage reflects varying degrees of execution risk, valuation considerations, and exposure to near-term program momentum. Let's walk through each one.

Karman Holdings: Playing the Missile, Rocket, and Drone Boom

Leshock initiated coverage of Karman Holdings with an Overweight rating and an $80 price forecast, compared with shares trading at $64.94 at initiation. He highlighted the company's exposure to missiles, rockets, and drones, along with its growing role across both defense and space programs.

The analyst expects post-IPO price discovery to support further upside. The valuation is based on approximately 54x blended 2026E and 2027E EV/EBITDA, which sounds rich until you consider that Karman is a high-growth company with limited public trading history. Premium multiples come with the territory for newly public companies in hot sectors.

KRMN shares were up 5.38% at $71.77 at the time of publication on Friday.

AeroVironment: Strong Margins and the BlueHalo Advantage

KeyBanc initiated AeroVironment at Overweight with a $285 price forecast, versus shares trading at $229.10. Leshock cited strong margins, backlog visibility, and a differentiated defense-technology portfolio as key drivers.

The BlueHalo acquisition is a big deal here. It adds scale in advanced counter-UAS systems, reinforcing AeroVironment's positioning in next-generation defense technologies. The stock trades near 28x EV/EBITDA, with the price forecast implying roughly 34x blended EV/EBITDA. That's a premium valuation, but Leshock views it as justified by consistent execution.

AVAV shares were last up 4.30% at $240.61.

Kratos Defense: Golden Dome and Hypersonics Drive the Story

Leshock initiated Kratos Defense & Security with an Overweight rating and a $90 price forecast, compared with shares at $69.77. He pointed to Kratos' leverage to Golden Dome, hypersonics development, and collaborative combat aircraft programs.

The valuation is anchored at roughly 8.5x blended 2026E and 2027E price-to-sales, which is above historical levels. But Leshock said the premium is supported by a structural shift toward advanced defense technologies. When the entire category is getting repriced higher, historical comparisons matter less.

KTOS shares were last up 4.66% at $74.73.

Firefly Aerospace: Early Promise, Execution Questions

KeyBanc assigned Firefly Aerospace a Sector Weight rating, balancing early spacecraft traction against execution and timing risks. Leshock said launch cadence and program schedules remain key variables for the company.

Firefly shares trade around 5.5x price-to-sales, below peers trading in a range of roughly 5x to 15x. The discount reflects uncertainty around cash flow generation and future capital requirements. Despite the neutral rating, the stock still surged on the coverage.

FLY shares jumped 19.13% to $23.91.

Intuitive Machines: Leading the Lunar Economy

Leshock initiated Intuitive Machines at Overweight with a $20 price forecast, versus shares at $10.21. He highlighted the company's leadership position in lunar services and its expanding backlog.

The stock trades near 3.4x price-to-sales, with the price forecast implying approximately 6.3x. Leshock expects operational improvements and additional contract awards to support scaling over time. This is a classic emerging growth story in a brand new market. The lunar economy is still being built, and Intuitive Machines is positioning itself at the center of it.

LUNR shares were last up 32.72% at $14.40, making it the biggest gainer in the group.

Redwire: Broad Exposure, Execution Needed

KeyBanc initiated Redwire Corp (RDW) with a Sector Weight rating, citing broad exposure across space and defense markets. Leshock said the Edge Autonomy acquisition adds scale, but upside depends on successful integration and execution toward sustained profitability.

Shares trade in the middle of Redwire's historical 1x to 4x price-to-sales range, reflecting a balanced risk-reward profile. It's not a bad place to be, but KeyBanc wants to see more execution before getting more aggressive.

RDW shares were last up 13.68% at $7.980.

Why This Matters Now

The timing of this coverage matters. Defense budgets are rising globally. The nature of warfare is changing, with drones and AI-enabled systems playing increasingly critical roles. And the space economy is shifting from government-only to a hybrid model with commercial applications gaining traction.

KeyBanc is essentially calling this sector one of the defining growth stories of the next decade. The market's response on Friday suggests investors are buying that narrative. Whether these valuations hold up will depend on execution, but the structural tailwinds are real.

Back to News

Defense Tech and Space Stocks Surge as KeyBanc Sees a Decade-Long Growth Wave

MarketDash Editorial Team
6 hours ago
KeyBanc Capital Markets just launched coverage of six space and defense technology companies, and the market liked what it heard. The firm sees this sector becoming one of the hottest growth areas in aerospace over the next ten years, driven by geopolitical tensions, AI-powered warfare, and the expanding commercial space economy.

When KeyBanc Capital Markets drops coverage on a bunch of space and defense companies all at once, and the stocks immediately shoot higher, you know Wall Street is paying attention. Several space and defense technology stocks moved sharply higher on Friday after KeyBanc initiated coverage across the group, with investors reacting enthusiastically to bullish long-term growth commentary and newly established price forecasts.

The big picture here is pretty straightforward: KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock thinks Space & Defense Technology could emerge as one of the strongest growth segments within Aerospace & Defense over the next decade. That's not just analyst speak. He's pointing to some pretty concrete catalysts.

First, there's the geopolitical environment. Elevated tensions globally mean rising defense budgets across multiple countries. Second, warfare itself is evolving rapidly, particularly around drones, AI-enabled systems, and missile defense initiatives like "Golden Dome." And third, the commercialization of space is broadening demand across launch services, lunar missions, satellite manufacturing, and defense-linked data applications.

It's a compelling thesis. But Leshock emphasized a selective approach, favoring companies with clear catalysts and durable exposure to high-priority end markets. Not every company in the space gets the same treatment.

Breaking Down the Coverage: Who Got What Rating

KeyBanc initiated Overweight ratings on Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN), AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV), Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS), and Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR), while assigning Sector Weight ratings to Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) and Redwire Corporation (RDW).

The coverage reflects varying degrees of execution risk, valuation considerations, and exposure to near-term program momentum. Let's walk through each one.

Karman Holdings: Playing the Missile, Rocket, and Drone Boom

Leshock initiated coverage of Karman Holdings with an Overweight rating and an $80 price forecast, compared with shares trading at $64.94 at initiation. He highlighted the company's exposure to missiles, rockets, and drones, along with its growing role across both defense and space programs.

The analyst expects post-IPO price discovery to support further upside. The valuation is based on approximately 54x blended 2026E and 2027E EV/EBITDA, which sounds rich until you consider that Karman is a high-growth company with limited public trading history. Premium multiples come with the territory for newly public companies in hot sectors.

KRMN shares were up 5.38% at $71.77 at the time of publication on Friday.

AeroVironment: Strong Margins and the BlueHalo Advantage

KeyBanc initiated AeroVironment at Overweight with a $285 price forecast, versus shares trading at $229.10. Leshock cited strong margins, backlog visibility, and a differentiated defense-technology portfolio as key drivers.

The BlueHalo acquisition is a big deal here. It adds scale in advanced counter-UAS systems, reinforcing AeroVironment's positioning in next-generation defense technologies. The stock trades near 28x EV/EBITDA, with the price forecast implying roughly 34x blended EV/EBITDA. That's a premium valuation, but Leshock views it as justified by consistent execution.

AVAV shares were last up 4.30% at $240.61.

Kratos Defense: Golden Dome and Hypersonics Drive the Story

Leshock initiated Kratos Defense & Security with an Overweight rating and a $90 price forecast, compared with shares at $69.77. He pointed to Kratos' leverage to Golden Dome, hypersonics development, and collaborative combat aircraft programs.

The valuation is anchored at roughly 8.5x blended 2026E and 2027E price-to-sales, which is above historical levels. But Leshock said the premium is supported by a structural shift toward advanced defense technologies. When the entire category is getting repriced higher, historical comparisons matter less.

KTOS shares were last up 4.66% at $74.73.

Firefly Aerospace: Early Promise, Execution Questions

KeyBanc assigned Firefly Aerospace a Sector Weight rating, balancing early spacecraft traction against execution and timing risks. Leshock said launch cadence and program schedules remain key variables for the company.

Firefly shares trade around 5.5x price-to-sales, below peers trading in a range of roughly 5x to 15x. The discount reflects uncertainty around cash flow generation and future capital requirements. Despite the neutral rating, the stock still surged on the coverage.

FLY shares jumped 19.13% to $23.91.

Intuitive Machines: Leading the Lunar Economy

Leshock initiated Intuitive Machines at Overweight with a $20 price forecast, versus shares at $10.21. He highlighted the company's leadership position in lunar services and its expanding backlog.

The stock trades near 3.4x price-to-sales, with the price forecast implying approximately 6.3x. Leshock expects operational improvements and additional contract awards to support scaling over time. This is a classic emerging growth story in a brand new market. The lunar economy is still being built, and Intuitive Machines is positioning itself at the center of it.

LUNR shares were last up 32.72% at $14.40, making it the biggest gainer in the group.

Redwire: Broad Exposure, Execution Needed

KeyBanc initiated Redwire Corp (RDW) with a Sector Weight rating, citing broad exposure across space and defense markets. Leshock said the Edge Autonomy acquisition adds scale, but upside depends on successful integration and execution toward sustained profitability.

Shares trade in the middle of Redwire's historical 1x to 4x price-to-sales range, reflecting a balanced risk-reward profile. It's not a bad place to be, but KeyBanc wants to see more execution before getting more aggressive.

RDW shares were last up 13.68% at $7.980.

Why This Matters Now

The timing of this coverage matters. Defense budgets are rising globally. The nature of warfare is changing, with drones and AI-enabled systems playing increasingly critical roles. And the space economy is shifting from government-only to a hybrid model with commercial applications gaining traction.

KeyBanc is essentially calling this sector one of the defining growth stories of the next decade. The market's response on Friday suggests investors are buying that narrative. Whether these valuations hold up will depend on execution, but the structural tailwinds are real.