Here's a number that should make U.S. policymakers nervous: China now operates 3.75 terawatts of power generation capacity compared to America's 1.30 terawatts. That's not just ahead—it's nearly triple.
Market commentator The Kobeissi Letter highlighted the striking gap on Friday, noting that China's power infrastructure has become a genuine strategic advantage. And it's not slowing down.
China currently has 34 nuclear reactors under construction, which exceeds the combined total of the next nine countries. Nearly 200 additional reactors are either planned or proposed. Meanwhile, the United States has exactly zero large commercial nuclear reactors under construction.
The disparity gets more striking when you look at the timeline. China's power generation capacity has doubled over the past eight years. The nation's installed capacity surpassed 3,348 gigawatts in 2024, up 14.6% year-over-year, according to data from China's National Energy Administration.
In 2024 alone, China added 429 gigawatts of net new capacity. Wind and solar accounted for 83% of those additions, showing how the country is simultaneously scaling total capacity and greening its energy mix.
Morgan Stanley (MS) estimates that China will invest roughly $560 billion in power grid projects by 2030. The World Economic Forum reported in December that over $80 billion was invested in 2024 alone.
The AI Connection
Why does all this matter beyond bragging rights? Because AI development is increasingly a game of whoever has the most reliable, abundant power wins. Training large language models and running data centers requires enormous amounts of electricity, and China's massive grid expansion is giving it a real edge.
Goldman Sachs (GS) has previously warned that the U.S. power grid crisis could severely limit AI growth. When your infrastructure can't keep pace with your ambitions, you've got a problem.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk certainly sees it that way. Responding to The Kobeissi Letter's report, Musk called the U.S. power situation a "major competitive disadvantage."
Research backs up the concern. U.S. data center power demand is rising faster than the grid can handle. Record spending is being thrown at the problem, but transmission bottlenecks remain stubborn obstacles amid the AI boom.
China's strategy appears straightforward: build massive power capacity now, dominate energy-intensive industries later. Whether it's AI, manufacturing, or whatever comes next, having nearly three times the power generation capacity of your main rival is the kind of advantage that's hard to overcome.