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Tesla Deliveries May Not Matter Anymore, Analyst Argues

MarketDash Editorial Team
6 days ago
A Barclays analyst suggests Tesla's quarterly delivery numbers might be losing their relevance as the company shifts focus toward AI, robotaxis, and humanoid robots rather than pure vehicle sales.

Here's something you don't hear every day: a Wall Street analyst suggesting that the core metric everyone watches for a company might not actually matter. But that's exactly what's happening with Tesla Inc. (TSLA).

For years, Tesla has enjoyed a valuation multiple that makes traditional automakers jealous. Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood has long argued the stock should trade like a tech company, not a car manufacturer. Now, it seems more analysts are coming around to that view, with some interesting implications.

The Delivery Numbers Might Be Yesterday's News

Tesla just posted record electric vehicle deliveries in the third quarter, boosted by strong demand before the federal EV tax credit expired in September. You'd think that would set the stage for delivery numbers to remain the key focus going forward. Think again.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy recently told investors that Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries "likely won't matter for the stock," according to reports. That's a pretty bold statement, especially since Levy expects those Q4 numbers to come in soft.

Levy maintains an Equal Weight rating on the stock with a $350 price target, up from $275 back in October. Interestingly, he previously called Tesla an "OG meme stock" in September, hinting that retail investor enthusiasm might be driving valuation more than traditional metrics like delivery volumes.

If deliveries are becoming less relevant, that could actually be good news for shareholders. Tesla has been dealing with declining sales and weaker demand in crucial markets like China. Deepwater Management's Gene Munster projects 2025 deliveries will drop roughly 7%, and he's predicting 2026 will see flat to 5% growth versus Street estimates of 16% year-over-year gains.

Musk Is Betting on Robots, Not Roadsters

This shift in analyst thinking aligns perfectly with where CEO Elon Musk has been directing investor attention lately. He's talked less about electric vehicles and more about robotaxis, Full Self-Driving technology, and the Optimus humanoid robot.

Musk hasn't been shy about his ambitions either. He's repeatedly claimed Tesla could reach a $25 trillion valuation in the future and has assigned 80% of that projected value to Optimus Bot alone. According to Musk, FSD and Optimus represent the "biggest factors" for the company's future growth.

Levy's note represents another data point in a growing trend of analysts placing greater emphasis on Tesla's technology initiatives rather than its automotive operations. This perspective strengthens the argument that Tesla should command a premium valuation and trade more like an AI or technology company than a traditional car manufacturer.

Whether the market fully embraces this narrative remains to be seen, but the conversation is definitely shifting from counting cars coming off the production line to evaluating the potential of robots and autonomous driving systems. That's quite a pivot for a company that, you know, started by selling electric cars.

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Tesla Deliveries May Not Matter Anymore, Analyst Argues

MarketDash Editorial Team
6 days ago
A Barclays analyst suggests Tesla's quarterly delivery numbers might be losing their relevance as the company shifts focus toward AI, robotaxis, and humanoid robots rather than pure vehicle sales.

Here's something you don't hear every day: a Wall Street analyst suggesting that the core metric everyone watches for a company might not actually matter. But that's exactly what's happening with Tesla Inc. (TSLA).

For years, Tesla has enjoyed a valuation multiple that makes traditional automakers jealous. Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood has long argued the stock should trade like a tech company, not a car manufacturer. Now, it seems more analysts are coming around to that view, with some interesting implications.

The Delivery Numbers Might Be Yesterday's News

Tesla just posted record electric vehicle deliveries in the third quarter, boosted by strong demand before the federal EV tax credit expired in September. You'd think that would set the stage for delivery numbers to remain the key focus going forward. Think again.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy recently told investors that Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries "likely won't matter for the stock," according to reports. That's a pretty bold statement, especially since Levy expects those Q4 numbers to come in soft.

Levy maintains an Equal Weight rating on the stock with a $350 price target, up from $275 back in October. Interestingly, he previously called Tesla an "OG meme stock" in September, hinting that retail investor enthusiasm might be driving valuation more than traditional metrics like delivery volumes.

If deliveries are becoming less relevant, that could actually be good news for shareholders. Tesla has been dealing with declining sales and weaker demand in crucial markets like China. Deepwater Management's Gene Munster projects 2025 deliveries will drop roughly 7%, and he's predicting 2026 will see flat to 5% growth versus Street estimates of 16% year-over-year gains.

Musk Is Betting on Robots, Not Roadsters

This shift in analyst thinking aligns perfectly with where CEO Elon Musk has been directing investor attention lately. He's talked less about electric vehicles and more about robotaxis, Full Self-Driving technology, and the Optimus humanoid robot.

Musk hasn't been shy about his ambitions either. He's repeatedly claimed Tesla could reach a $25 trillion valuation in the future and has assigned 80% of that projected value to Optimus Bot alone. According to Musk, FSD and Optimus represent the "biggest factors" for the company's future growth.

Levy's note represents another data point in a growing trend of analysts placing greater emphasis on Tesla's technology initiatives rather than its automotive operations. This perspective strengthens the argument that Tesla should command a premium valuation and trade more like an AI or technology company than a traditional car manufacturer.

Whether the market fully embraces this narrative remains to be seen, but the conversation is definitely shifting from counting cars coming off the production line to evaluating the potential of robots and autonomous driving systems. That's quite a pivot for a company that, you know, started by selling electric cars.