Here's an interesting question: If SpaceX goes public, does it steal thunder from Tesla Inc. (TSLA)? Wedbush analyst Dan Ives doesn't think so. In fact, he thinks it might do the opposite.
Why Now Makes Sense for SpaceX
SpaceX could go public in 2026 at a $1.5 trillion valuation, giving investors another way to bet on Elon Musk beyond Tesla. During a CNBC interview, Ives explained why the timing works.
"I think the time is right," Ives said of the potential 2026 offering.
The analyst pointed to SpaceX's soaring valuation and the early stages of what he calls an eight-to-ten-year AI revolution. "SpaceX is an inflection point. I think it's important to go public."
Ives expects SpaceX to be among several major private tech companies to tap public markets as the industry matures and valuations climb.
Expanding the Ecosystem, Not Splitting It
When asked whether a SpaceX IPO might dilute interest from Tesla investors who mainly want Musk exposure, Ives acknowledged it's a fair question but dismissed the concern.
"I actually think it expands the ecosystem from SpaceX to Tesla and the ownership of xAI."
The way Ives sees it, Musk sits at the center of multiple high-growth companies over the next five to fifteen years. Having more ways to invest in that universe doesn't necessarily mean less enthusiasm for any single piece of it.
Still, given the choice, Ives prefers Tesla for its growth potential tied to robotaxis and Full Self-Driving technology. "This is just the start," he said.
Ives predicts a "monster year ahead" for Tesla, citing what he calls "wartime CEO" Musk leading the charge. He believes autonomous vehicles alone could add $1 trillion to Tesla's valuation. His broader forecast? Tesla hitting a $2 trillion to $3 trillion market cap within two years.
What Investors Actually Want
So which would investors choose? MarketDash recently polled followers on social media, asking whether they'd prefer to invest in Tesla or SpaceX if both were valued at roughly $1.5 trillion.
The results weren't close. SpaceX captured 68.3% of the vote compared to Tesla's 31.7% for the next decade.
That aligns with earlier polling data. A May 2025 survey asked which Musk-related company investors most wanted access to, including a potential standalone Starlink business. Starlink and SpaceX (holding a minority Starlink stake) tied at 27% each. xAI came in third at 19%, while Tesla landed in fourth place with just 16%.
The 2026 Storyline to Watch
A SpaceX IPO could dominate headlines in 2026. The question investors will be watching closely: Does the offering lift all Musk-related boats, or does it siphon capital away from Tesla?
Ives has made his bet. He thinks the Musk ecosystem grows bigger together, not smaller by division. Whether the market agrees will be one of the most fascinating dynamics to watch unfold.