The Energy Unleashing Is Officially Underway

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum is painting a pretty optimistic picture of where American energy policy is headed. According to him, President Trump's approach is bringing "prosperity to home" and "peace abroad," and the results are already showing up in ways that matter to regular Americans.

The transformation Burgum describes is actually pretty dramatic. Just a year ago, the U.S. had restrictions on liquefied natural gas exports. Now? America is the largest LNG exporter in the world, pushing Russia out of European markets while creating jobs and driving infrastructure investment domestically. That's not a small shift.

But the real story might be what's happening with permitting. The administration has used emergency powers declared on Trump's first day in office to slash review timelines in ways that would have seemed impossible a few years ago. Environmental assessments that used to drag on for years are now getting done in less than 14 days. Environmental impact statements? Less than 28 days. The House has passed the SPEED Act to codify these fast-track provisions into law, though it's still waiting on Senate approval.

Burgum frames all of this in geopolitical terms too. "Russia and Iran want the United States to stop producing energy so they can use it to fund wars and fund terrorism," he said. It's classic energy-as-national-security framing, and it's clearly central to how this administration thinks about the issue.

When Lower Prices Create New Problems

Here's where things get interesting, though. Trump's energy policies are supposed to help consumers, and in some ways they are. But those falling energy prices are creating a real headache for the producers who are supposed to be drilling all that oil and gas.

Crude oil is currently hovering around $57.21 per barrel, down 20% year-to-date. Last week it touched $55, the lowest level in nearly five years. That might sound great if you're filling up your car, but there's a catch: the average breakeven price for U.S. producers is $61 per barrel. When oil trades below that level, it becomes harder to profitably maintain output. You can only lose money on each barrel for so long before you have to make some tough decisions.

The United States Oil Fund LP (USO), which tracks West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Oil, is down 3.39% over the past month and 11.57% year-to-date. The fund shows weak momentum and unfavorable price trends across short, medium, and long-term horizons, which tells you pretty much everything you need to know about investor sentiment right now.

So yes, consumers are getting relief. But the producers who are supposed to be unleashing all that American energy are dealing with prices that make it tough to justify aggressive drilling programs. It's one of those situations where the policy goals and market reality are pulling in slightly different directions, and it'll be worth watching how that tension resolves itself in the months ahead.