The weekend diplomacy tour made a stop in Miami, where U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff spent three days trying to find common ground with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine. His assessment? "Productive" and "constructive," though that optimistic language comes with a rather substantial asterisk.

The Miami Meetings

Witkoff took to X on Sunday to share details about the talks, which brought together a notable U.S. delegation. Alongside Witkoff sat President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and White House aide Josh Gruenbaum. Across the table was Kirill Dmitriev, the special envoy representing Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The American envoy emphasized the importance of building a "shared strategic approach between Ukraine, the United States, and Europe" while acknowledging Russia's stated commitment to achieving peace in Ukraine. The conversations tackled some heavy-duty topics: a 20-point plan, multilateral security guarantee frameworks, U.S.-specific security guarantees for Ukraine, and economic initiatives to fund Ukraine's reconstruction.

Earlier in the week, officials from the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe reported making headway on security guarantees for Kyiv. Whether Moscow will actually accept those guarantees remains very much an open question. And here's where things get sticky: Russia wants to hold onto the Ukrainian territories it has captured during the war. Kyiv's response to that demand? A hard no.

Crimea Recognition and European Concerns

These Miami discussions follow reports of a proposed peace deal that would have the U.S. formally recognizing Russian control over Crimea and chunks of eastern and southern Ukraine. That potential diplomatic shift has made European partners understandably nervous. Trump reportedly clarified earlier that his administration's peace proposal isn't a done deal.

Meanwhile, the European Union is putting its money where its mouth is. EU leaders agreed to allocate €90 billion (about $105.41 billion) for Ukraine covering 2026 and 2027. This aid package doesn't touch Russian assets and represents a fraction of what's needed—Ukraine's total reconstruction bill is projected to hit $524 billion.

The Economic Reality and Intelligence Assessment

Can Russia actually afford to keep this war going? According to Sergey Aleksashenko, a former Russian central bank deputy chairman, Moscow has enough financial runway to sustain war spending for at least another two to three years despite the economic strain.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard offered a different perspective on the military situation. She stated that U.S. intelligence indicates Russia lacks the capability to fully conquer Ukraine or launch invasions into Europe. Gabbard argued that claims suggesting otherwise are designed to undermine Trump's peace efforts, noting that Russia itself wants to avoid a broader conflict.

So where does this leave things? The talks happened, both sides showed up, and everyone used diplomatic language about progress. But the fundamental disagreement over territory—the kind of issue that tends to make or break peace negotiations—remains firmly in place.