The AI Disruption Story Isn't Showing Up in Software Fundamentals

Here's something interesting: despite endless chatter about AI upending the software industry, the actual businesses aren't trading like they're being dismantled. Companies like ServiceNow, Adobe, Salesforce, and MongoDB are still posting recurring revenue growth, maintaining strong renewal rates, and expanding their margins. Sure, their multiples have compressed, but that's a valuation story, not a fundamental breakdown.

The market is being selective about which software stocks it punishes. Companies relying on usage-based models or showing slower AI monetization have taken more heat, while platforms that have embedded AI directly into their workflows are holding steadier. What we're seeing isn't panic about whether these businesses survive, it's a debate about the speed at which AI reshapes software economics. That's a very different conversation.

Crypto Stages a Sharp Recovery

Bitcoin has bounced aggressively from its 80k lows and is now trading around 89k. Ethereum has reclaimed the 3,000 level after sliding into the mid-2,000s. The recovery follows what looks like forced selling and leverage liquidations earlier this month, suggesting at least some stabilization in risk appetite.

Whether this turns into a sustained rally is anyone's guess. Crypto remains tightly linked to broader liquidity conditions, interest rates, and equity market volatility. But the fact that both assets bounced this hard off their lows keeps the longer-term bull case intact, even if we're in for more choppiness ahead.

Holiday Week Means Light Volume and Bigger Swings

This is a holiday-shortened trading week, with U.S. markets closed on Christmas Day. Expect thin liquidity, which means price moves can get exaggerated fast in either direction.

Historically, this stretch brings either quiet consolidation or sharp moves driven by light positioning heading into year-end. For most investors, it's less about making bold predictions and more about managing risk until normal trading volume returns.