Remember when everyone was calling for XRP (XRP) to hit $10 in 2025? Those believers are now sitting on an 8% loss for the year, watching their altcoin dreams evaporate. Turns out predicting crypto rallies is harder than it looks, especially when legal drama, regulatory dysfunction, and bad timing conspire against you.

Here's what actually happened.

The SEC Lawsuit Wouldn't Die

The SEC vs. Ripple case didn't officially end until August 22, when the court clerk certified that both parties dropped their appeals. That's eight months into a year that was supposed to be XRP's moment.

The delay wasn't an accident. Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler filed a last-minute appeal just five days before Donald Trump fired him from office. Sound familiar? It should. This was basically a repeat of 2020, when Jay Clayton filed the original lawsuit on his final day as SEC chair.

Because of Gensler's appeal, the case lingered for months longer than anyone expected. And while the lawsuit stayed open, XRP stayed stuck. Big institutions stayed away. ETF issuers couldn't move forward. Every rally hit a ceiling.

Legal uncertainty is kryptonite for institutional money, and XRP had plenty of it.

ETFs Arrived Way Too Late

XRP spot ETFs didn't go live until November. That's right—November, not January or February when retail was most excited.

Six of seven ETF issuers updated their S-1 filings on August 22, the exact day the case officially ended, to confirm the lawsuit was resolved. But then the government shutdown threw another wrench into the works.

Paul Atkins at the SEC eventually provided a workaround, allowing issuers to file amendments without delay clauses. That triggered a 20-day countdown that let ETFs launch even during the shutdown. Creative problem-solving, sure, but the damage was done.

By the time ETFs finally arrived, it was too late in the year to fuel the massive institutional buying wave everyone had priced in. The moment had passed.

The CLARITY Act Is Still MIA

The CLARITY Act, the market structure bill meant to give banks and institutions clear rules for using crypto, still isn't law. The House passed its version earlier this year, but the bill remains stuck in the Senate. As of late December, lawmakers pushed the next formal markup vote into early 2026.

Three unresolved issues keep gumming up the works.

First, stablecoin yield restrictions. Banks successfully blocked stablecoin issuers from paying interest under the GENIUS Act, and now they want that restriction expanded into broader market structure legislation. Their concern is straightforward: yield-bearing stablecoins threaten traditional bank deposits.

Second, Trump family conflicts. Several Democrats refuse to back the bill unless it restricts the president's family from profiting in crypto. Whether that's reasonable or political theater depends on who you ask.

Third, DeFi regulation. Large Wall Street firms, including Citadel, are lobbying Congress to classify DeFi developers like centralized broker-dealers. That would force software builders to register with the SEC. Industry groups warn this approach would protect incumbents while pushing crypto development overseas.

Jake Chervinsky, lawyer for the Blockchain Association, confirmed a markup vote isn't happening in December.

What Comes Next

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse predicted the CLARITY Act would pass in the first half of 2026. Industry consensus says the bill gets done by mid-year.

But here's the twist: XRP pumped 600% from $0.49 pre-election to $3.66 in July 2025, without any laws. The rally came on speculation, not legislation.

Crypto analyst Zach Rector warns the CLARITY Act will be a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news event, just like the ETFs. XRP will run in anticipation of the bill signing, then correct when it actually passes. Classic crypto behavior.

Technical Picture: $1.80 Is Make-Or-Break

XRP is down 0.49% on the day after surrendering roughly 48% from July's peak near $3.70. The token now consolidates at multi-month lows with no meaningful reversal signals.

The Supertrend indicator sits at $2.1867, well above current price, while SAR dots at $1.9579 reinforce the downtrend. A descending triangle pattern has formed since October, with horizontal support around $1.80-$1.85 and declining resistance near $1.95. This compression typically resolves with a breakout, and the apex is approaching fast.

The critical support zone sits at $1.80-$1.85, tested multiple times in recent weeks. A breakdown below exposes XRP to a flush toward $1.60 or lower, where minimal structural support exists.

Resistance stands at $1.95-$2.00 initially, then $2.18 where the Supertrend sits. For any legitimate recovery, XRP needs to reclaim $2.40-$2.50, the November consolidation area. Until that happens, the technical bias remains firmly negative.