Marketdash
Back to Stock Market News

Bitcoin's 2026 Outlook: Bulls See $170K While Bears Predict a Boring Year

MarketDash Editorial Team
22 hours ago
From JPMorgan's $170,000 price target to Fidelity's warning of a pullback to $65,000, Wall Street can't agree on where Bitcoin is headed this year. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still dreaming of $500,000.

Finding Bitcoin (BTC) bulls as we head into 2026 isn't exactly difficult. Finding consensus on where the cryptocurrency is actually going? That's another story entirely.

The bears are out there, of course. Some are the usual suspects who've been predicting Bitcoin's demise for the past decade. Short-seller Michael Burry recently added his voice to the chorus, calling Bitcoin's valuation "the most ridiculous thing." But even among investors who don't share Burry's view that Bitcoin is a ridiculous Ponzi scheme, there's plenty of caution about repeating last fall's rally to all-time highs.

Fidelity is urging restraint, expecting the flagship cryptocurrency to mostly trade sideways with modest gains. Galaxy Research thinks 2026 will be downright "boring" for Bitcoin. Yet with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates in 2026 and overall market sentiment for traditional securities looking positive, conditions seem ripe for Bitcoin to reclaim the $100,000-plus territory it occupied last year. Right now, prices hover around $90,000, well below October's peak of $126,000.

The Optimists Make Their Case

Grayscale Investments published its 2026 Digital Asset Outlook this month, arguing that this year will see Wall Street adoption of crypto broaden significantly. The firm's research team predicts Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in early 2026, surpassing that prior $126,000 peak.

"The current bull market has lasted more than three years, and the most recent Bitcoin halving was in April 2024, more than 1.5 years ago. Therefore, conventional wisdom among certain market participants says that Bitcoin's price likely peaked in October, and 2026 will be a challenging year for crypto returns. We expect rising valuations across all six crypto sectors in 2026, and Bitcoin could exceed its previous high in the first half of the year." – 2026 Digital Asset Outlook: Dawn of the Institutional Era by Grayscale research team, Dec. 2025.

JPMorgan analysts are similarly bullish. In a December 2025 client note, strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou dusted off the "digital gold" narrative. Their model suggests a "theoretical price of close to $170,000" within the next 6 to 12 months. The logic here is straightforward: if Bitcoin's market value grows to rival gold's on a volatility-adjusted basis, you're looking at $170,000 sometime in 2026. Worth noting that Bitcoin underperformed gold throughout 2025.

Then there's Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, who remains one of Bitcoin's most passionate advocates. Back in September 2021, she predicted Bitcoin could hit $500,000 by 2026. Her thesis rests on corporations allocating cash reserves to Bitcoin and institutional investors holding around 5% BTC in standard tech portfolios.

In an interview with the South Korean show Global Money Talk this month, Wood ranked Bitcoin as her top crypto holding, calling it "a global monetary system, a technology, and an entirely new asset class. It's the crypto that institutions will dip their toes into first. So Bitcoin has to be on the top of the list." She currently has about 12% of her tech funds allocated to crypto.

The Skeptics Push Back

Fidelity's Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer sees a potential pullback ahead. Timmer noted in late 2025 that Bitcoin's October all-time high might have marked the top of this bull cycle, consistent with historic halving-driven patterns from previous years. He predicts Bitcoin could enter a bear market in 2026, potentially "revisiting the $65,000 to $70,000 range" as a bottom.

As things stand, Bitcoin is actually closer to Timmer's $70,000 target than to its October high.

Galaxy Digital's research team, led by Alex Thorn, called 2026 "one of the most difficult years to forecast" for Bitcoin. In Galaxy's 2026 predictions report published December 18, Thorn said market uncertainty was "extremely high." Bitcoin options market pricing implies equal odds of Bitcoin trading at $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026, with an even wider range of $50,000 to $250,000 by year-end.

The fourth quarter saw investors selling from the peak, resulting in Bitcoin's worst fourth quarter performance since 2018. BTC prices fell 22.62% during Q4, versus a 42% drop in 2018, according to CoinGlass data.

Burry's critique of Bitcoin fits into his broader skepticism about artificial intelligence hype. Like the AI investor craze led by chip maker Nvidia (NVDA), Burry called Bitcoin "one of the biggest speculative bubbles in history," comparing it to "tulip mania," the period during the Dutch Golden Age from roughly 1634 to early 1637 when contracts for certain rare tulip bulbs traded at extraordinarily high prices.

Thorn represents an interesting bull/bear hybrid. Bearish short-term, bullish long-term. He thinks 2026 "could be a boring year for Bitcoin. Whether it finishes at $70k or $150k, our bullish outlook over longer time periods is only growing stronger."

"I predict that Bitcoin's days of purely parabolic growth are over," said Joel Valenzuela, a core member of the Dash DAO. "We will likely see it remain a very strong asset for years to come, but I would expect most growth to be in other sectors of the crypto space next year. They have a lot of catching up to do, and offer a much greater spectrum of real-world applications."

So where does that leave us? Somewhere between $50,000 and $500,000, apparently. Welcome to forecasting Bitcoin.

Back to Stock Market News

Bitcoin's 2026 Outlook: Bulls See $170K While Bears Predict a Boring Year

MarketDash Editorial Team
22 hours ago
From JPMorgan's $170,000 price target to Fidelity's warning of a pullback to $65,000, Wall Street can't agree on where Bitcoin is headed this year. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still dreaming of $500,000.

Finding Bitcoin (BTC) bulls as we head into 2026 isn't exactly difficult. Finding consensus on where the cryptocurrency is actually going? That's another story entirely.

The bears are out there, of course. Some are the usual suspects who've been predicting Bitcoin's demise for the past decade. Short-seller Michael Burry recently added his voice to the chorus, calling Bitcoin's valuation "the most ridiculous thing." But even among investors who don't share Burry's view that Bitcoin is a ridiculous Ponzi scheme, there's plenty of caution about repeating last fall's rally to all-time highs.

Fidelity is urging restraint, expecting the flagship cryptocurrency to mostly trade sideways with modest gains. Galaxy Research thinks 2026 will be downright "boring" for Bitcoin. Yet with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates in 2026 and overall market sentiment for traditional securities looking positive, conditions seem ripe for Bitcoin to reclaim the $100,000-plus territory it occupied last year. Right now, prices hover around $90,000, well below October's peak of $126,000.

The Optimists Make Their Case

Grayscale Investments published its 2026 Digital Asset Outlook this month, arguing that this year will see Wall Street adoption of crypto broaden significantly. The firm's research team predicts Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in early 2026, surpassing that prior $126,000 peak.

"The current bull market has lasted more than three years, and the most recent Bitcoin halving was in April 2024, more than 1.5 years ago. Therefore, conventional wisdom among certain market participants says that Bitcoin's price likely peaked in October, and 2026 will be a challenging year for crypto returns. We expect rising valuations across all six crypto sectors in 2026, and Bitcoin could exceed its previous high in the first half of the year." – 2026 Digital Asset Outlook: Dawn of the Institutional Era by Grayscale research team, Dec. 2025.

JPMorgan analysts are similarly bullish. In a December 2025 client note, strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou dusted off the "digital gold" narrative. Their model suggests a "theoretical price of close to $170,000" within the next 6 to 12 months. The logic here is straightforward: if Bitcoin's market value grows to rival gold's on a volatility-adjusted basis, you're looking at $170,000 sometime in 2026. Worth noting that Bitcoin underperformed gold throughout 2025.

Then there's Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, who remains one of Bitcoin's most passionate advocates. Back in September 2021, she predicted Bitcoin could hit $500,000 by 2026. Her thesis rests on corporations allocating cash reserves to Bitcoin and institutional investors holding around 5% BTC in standard tech portfolios.

In an interview with the South Korean show Global Money Talk this month, Wood ranked Bitcoin as her top crypto holding, calling it "a global monetary system, a technology, and an entirely new asset class. It's the crypto that institutions will dip their toes into first. So Bitcoin has to be on the top of the list." She currently has about 12% of her tech funds allocated to crypto.

The Skeptics Push Back

Fidelity's Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer sees a potential pullback ahead. Timmer noted in late 2025 that Bitcoin's October all-time high might have marked the top of this bull cycle, consistent with historic halving-driven patterns from previous years. He predicts Bitcoin could enter a bear market in 2026, potentially "revisiting the $65,000 to $70,000 range" as a bottom.

As things stand, Bitcoin is actually closer to Timmer's $70,000 target than to its October high.

Galaxy Digital's research team, led by Alex Thorn, called 2026 "one of the most difficult years to forecast" for Bitcoin. In Galaxy's 2026 predictions report published December 18, Thorn said market uncertainty was "extremely high." Bitcoin options market pricing implies equal odds of Bitcoin trading at $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026, with an even wider range of $50,000 to $250,000 by year-end.

The fourth quarter saw investors selling from the peak, resulting in Bitcoin's worst fourth quarter performance since 2018. BTC prices fell 22.62% during Q4, versus a 42% drop in 2018, according to CoinGlass data.

Burry's critique of Bitcoin fits into his broader skepticism about artificial intelligence hype. Like the AI investor craze led by chip maker Nvidia (NVDA), Burry called Bitcoin "one of the biggest speculative bubbles in history," comparing it to "tulip mania," the period during the Dutch Golden Age from roughly 1634 to early 1637 when contracts for certain rare tulip bulbs traded at extraordinarily high prices.

Thorn represents an interesting bull/bear hybrid. Bearish short-term, bullish long-term. He thinks 2026 "could be a boring year for Bitcoin. Whether it finishes at $70k or $150k, our bullish outlook over longer time periods is only growing stronger."

"I predict that Bitcoin's days of purely parabolic growth are over," said Joel Valenzuela, a core member of the Dash DAO. "We will likely see it remain a very strong asset for years to come, but I would expect most growth to be in other sectors of the crypto space next year. They have a lot of catching up to do, and offer a much greater spectrum of real-world applications."

So where does that leave us? Somewhere between $50,000 and $500,000, apparently. Welcome to forecasting Bitcoin.