From Science Experiment To Commercial Reality

Andrew Left isn't backing down from his quantum computing thesis. The Citron Research founder doubled down Monday on his bet that Infleqtion (CCCX), a neutral atom quantum technology company, is about to have its moment. His reasoning? The company has crossed the threshold from theoretical physics project to actual business.

In a post on X, Left pointed to Infleqtion's collaboration with Safran SA, the French aeronautics behemoth, which is deploying the company's quantum technology for GPS-independent timing solutions in "mission-critical systems." Translation: this isn't lab work anymore. Real customers are paying for real products that solve real problems.

"This is no longer a science project," Left declared. "This is real."

That's high praise in a sector where plenty of companies are still figuring out whether their quantum computers can do anything more useful than theoretical calculations. Infleqtion, which went public via SPAC merger earlier this year, appears to have cleared that hurdle.

The Valuation Gap That Doesn't Make Sense

Here's where things get interesting. Left contrasted Infleqtion with Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI), another quantum computing player that Citron is actively shorting. According to Left, Rigetti "can't even make stage 2 with DARPA," referring to benchmarks set by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the U.S. government's advanced tech arm.

Yet somehow, Rigetti trades at a market capitalization of $7.84 billion while Infleqtion sits at just over $720 million. That's more than a 10x difference for a company that, by Citron's assessment, is behind on execution.

Citron expects this valuation discrepancy to flip by early 2026. That's a bold call, but it's the entire premise of the firm's long/short quantum trade.

The Long/Short Quantum Bet

Earlier this year, Citron announced it was going long Infleqtion while simultaneously shorting Rigetti, betting that the market would eventually recognize the gap between execution and hype. At the time, Citron noted that Infleqtion already had customers, revenue, and a partnership with NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), while Rigetti was trading on aspiration more than accomplishment.

The trade hasn't been a home run yet. Since Citron initiated the position, Rigetti has dropped 35.50% while Infleqtion has declined just 1.68%. That's a win in relative terms, but broader skepticism around quantum computing stocks has kept pressure on the entire sector.

Quantum Stocks Light Up During Santa Rally

Monday brought some relief. Infleqtion shares surged 13.50% to close at $15.72, while Rigetti jumped 13.24% to $26.90. The entire quantum computing sector caught fire during the year-end Santa rally, fueled by optimistic analyst coverage from Jefferies and Wedbush Securities, plus bullish options activity across the board.

Put/call ratios for most quantum names are sitting below their 20-day averages, a technical signal that suggests traders are positioning for upside rather than downside. That's a notable shift for a sector that's spent much of the year battling doubters who question whether quantum computing can ever deliver on its massive promises.

The Quantum Sector's Strong Year

Monday's rally capped what's been a successful year for quantum stocks heading into 2025. While individual performance varied wildly, the sector as a whole gained significant attention from both retail and institutional investors. Analysts are betting the momentum carries into the new year, especially as companies continue announcing commercial partnerships and moving beyond pure research.

Here's how quantum stocks performed Monday and year-to-date:

D-Wave Quantum stands out with a staggering 234.96% year-to-date gain, while Quantum Computing Inc. is the notable laggard, down 34.49% for the year despite Monday's pop. The Defiance Quantum ETF, which offers diversified exposure to the sector, is up 36.69% year-to-date.

The 2026 Quantum Question

Left's prediction that Infleqtion and Rigetti will swap market cap positions by early 2026 sets up an interesting test case for the quantum computing sector. Can commercial progress and real partnerships overcome the hype premium that purely aspirational companies command?

If Citron is right, the market will eventually reward execution over promise. If not, quantum computing might remain a momentum-driven sector where valuations reflect hope more than current reality. Either way, 2026 should provide some answers about which quantum companies have staying power beyond the current rally.