When Elon Musk talks about his Robotaxi ambitions, the numbers tend to be bold. But according to some clever detective work from a Texas engineering student, the reality on the ground in Austin looks quite different from what Tesla Inc. (TSLA) CEO has been describing.
The Robotaxi Reality Revealed
An enterprising student at Texas A&M University decided to reverse-engineer Tesla's official Robotaxi app to see what was actually happening with the service. What he discovered was illuminating: just 32 Tesla Model Y vehicles are currently operating in the Austin Robotaxi network. That's a far cry from Musk's earlier claims of having 1,000 Robotaxis cruising around the Texas capital.
The student created a tracker that monitors the service's availability in real time, and the data paints a picture of a pilot program still finding its footing. After speaking with someone who had researched the Austin depot and recorded videos, the student learned that typically only "1-5" Robotaxis are out operating at any given time. The tracker shows the service is unavailable roughly 60% of the time, with current average wait times hovering around 14 minutes.
Tesla didn't immediately respond to requests for comment on the discrepancy.
How Tesla Stacks Up Against the Competition
The tracker data becomes even more interesting when you compare Tesla's operations to its rivals. That same tracking methodology shows Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) (GOOGL) subsidiary Waymo operating over 63 vehicles in Austin alone. That's more than double Tesla's fleet size in the same market.
The gap gets wider when you zoom out. Investor Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management put it bluntly: if the competition between Waymo and Tesla Robotaxis were a basketball game, "Waymo would be up 50–2." Waymo recently hit the milestone of 450,000 weekly rides and announced it has completed over 14 million paid Robotaxi rides in 2025 so far. The company operates an estimated fleet of about 2,500 vehicles across multiple cities.
Tesla's Driverless Push Continues
Despite the smaller-than-advertised scale, Tesla is making progress on one crucial front: the company has begun testing fully driverless operations in Austin, which Musk confirmed. This marks an important step forward, since operating without a safety driver is essential for a true Robotaxi service. Tesla is pushing hard to achieve full driverless operations in the city by the end of the year.
A Tesla Cybercab was also spotted testing in Austin recently, though observers couldn't determine whether it was being piloted by a human or operating autonomously. The testing continues as Tesla works to close the gap with competitors who already have years of driverless operation under their belts.
The Global Robotaxi Race Heats Up
While Tesla and Waymo duke it out in the United States, the autonomous ride-hailing battle is going international. Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) and Lyft Inc. (LYFT) just announced a partnership with Chinese tech giant Baidu Inc. (BIDU) and its Robotaxi division Apollo Go. The companies plan to launch service in London sometime next year.
Apollo Go isn't exactly a small player either. The company recently announced it reached 250,000 paid Robotaxi rides per week and that its fleet has logged over 140 million driverless miles. The London launch represents a significant expansion of the autonomous ride-hailing market beyond the United States and China.
For Tesla investors, the tracker data serves as a useful reality check. While Musk's vision for Robotaxis remains ambitious, the actual deployment appears to be proceeding more cautiously than his public statements might suggest. Whether that's prudent scaling or a sign of technical challenges remains to be seen, but the numbers don't lie: Tesla has ground to make up if it wants to compete with the leaders in this space.
Price Action: TSLA shares jumped 1.56% to close at $488.73, then edged up another 0.26% to $489.99 in after-hours trading.