President Donald Trump has a simple explanation for why unemployment ticked up to 4.6% in November: He's actually doing his job by cutting unnecessary federal workers. Speaking at a drug pricing press conference on Friday, Trump made it clear that the rising unemployment rate isn't a bug in his economic plan—it's a feature.
Private Sector Growth Versus Government Bloat
Trump framed the unemployment increase as a deliberate trade-off. "The only reason" the rate went up, he explained, was the significant reduction in government jobs. And according to the president, that reduction has been unprecedented and will continue.
His reasoning? The federal workforce had "millions and millions" of people in jobs who "never even showed up." Trump argued he "could reduce unemployment to 2%, 1% or practically zero by just hiring people" into the federal government, even though these positions are unnecessary. "We don't need 10 people to fill one job," he stated.
The president emphasized that "100% of our new jobs are in the private sector" over recent months, adding that "that's the way to make America great again." He projected that private sector job growth would accelerate further with ongoing construction of new buildings, AI facilities, and auto plants across the country.
November Numbers Tell A Mixed Story
The data backing up Trump's narrative shows some nuance. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by just 64,000 in November, barely meeting already subdued expectations. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, marking a four-year high and signaling that the labor market is cooling.
Breaking down the numbers: private-sector hiring added 69,000 jobs, as Trump highlighted. But government employment dropped by 5,000, offsetting some of those gains and keeping overall job growth muted. The federal workforce reduction stems from both the government shutdown and Trump's sweeping cuts through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Recession Concerns Mount
Not everyone is celebrating the shift toward private sector employment. Leading economists have raised alarm bells about the slowing labor market following November's release. Economist Justin Wolfers questioned whether the economy might already be in a recession, noting that employment trends point to a clear slowdown. He also claimed the economy created "zero jobs" since Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, though his claims couldn't be confirmed by available data.
Beyond the government cuts, the broader labor market faces pressure from multiple directions. Layoffs have been soaring while hiring has collapsed, with private-sector reports indicating that artificial intelligence is quietly replacing workers at an unprecedented pace. The combination of federal workforce reductions and AI-driven displacement is creating a more complex employment picture than the headline numbers suggest.
Trump's bet is essentially this: Yes, unemployment might rise temporarily as bloated government payrolls shrink, but the private sector will more than make up the difference with higher-quality, productive jobs. Whether that trade-off works out depends on whether private companies start hiring at a faster clip—something the November data suggests hasn't happened yet.