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Why Lamb Weston Can't Seem to Catch a Break

MarketDash Editorial Team
4 hours ago
Lamb Weston has been in free fall since mid-2023, down over 61%. Using the Adhishthana analytical framework, we break down the technical signals that explain this prolonged decline and what investors should watch for next.

Lamb Weston (LW) has been stuck in reverse since July 2023, and if you're wondering when the selling will stop, the answer appears to be: not yet. The stock continues to trade under heavy bearish pressure, and when you look at it through the lens of the Adhishthana framework, this isn't just bad luck or temporary weakness. It's structural. Let's walk through what went wrong and why this underperformance has legs.

When a Bullish Setup Goes Sideways

On the weekly chart, Lamb Weston is currently sitting in Phase 12 of the 18-phase Adhishthana cycle. But to really understand why this stock has been such a disaster, you need to rewind to Phase 4.

Here's the setup: under Adhishthana principles, stocks typically form something called a Cakra structure between Phases 4 and 8. Think of it as an arc-like formation that usually signals bullish momentum building. When everything goes according to plan, the stock breaks out to the upside in Phase 9, launching what's known as the Himalayan Formation. It's supposed to be the good part of the story.

Lamb Weston entered Phase 4 back in December 2019 and proceeded to form a textbook Cakra pattern through Phase 8. The stock was in a strong uptrend, doing exactly what it was supposed to do. But then came Phase 9, and instead of breaking out higher like the pattern suggested, the stock reversed hard and broke its Cakra to the downside.

That's when things got ugly.

The Move of Pralaya: As Bearish as It Sounds

A downside Cakra break isn't just a disappointment. In the Adhishthana framework, it triggers one of the most bearish outcomes possible, called the Move of Pralaya.

According to Adhishthana: The Principles That Govern Wealth, Time & Tragedy:

"When the underlying breaks the Cākra on the flip side, it typically draws consolidation up to the Guna triads. The movement after the break is highly significant, and the selling momentum is extremely strong. Such a move is called the Move of Pralayā."

And that's exactly what happened. Once Lamb Weston broke that Cakra, the selling just kept coming. The stock has dropped over 61% since the breakdown, and according to the framework, this weakness is expected to persist until the stock reaches its Guna Triads in Phases 14, 15, and 16. Only at that point will there be enough information to determine whether a real reversal is even on the table.

The Monthly Chart Reveals the Deeper Problem

So why did a stock that was rallying strongly until mid-2023 suddenly collapse? The monthly chart holds the answer.

On the monthly timeframe, Lamb Weston is currently in Phase 2, which unfolds in two distinct segments under Adhishthana principles. First comes the Sankhya period, typically characterized by consolidation or corrective movement. Then comes the Buddhi period, which often delivers strong, sustained upside momentum. It's a rhythm that stocks are supposed to follow.

But Lamb Weston didn't follow the script. Instead of consolidating during the Sankhya period like it should have, the stock rallied prematurely. That kind of early strength in Phase 2 tends to be unsustainable, and it usually gets punished when the stock transitions into the Buddhi phase.

That's precisely what played out here. As Lamb Weston entered the Buddhi period, it didn't continue higher. It collapsed, giving back all those premature gains and then some. This deviation from the natural rhythm is a textbook example of how the Adhishthana framework helps identify rallies that look strong on the surface but lack the structural support to last.

What Should Investors Expect Now?

Between the downside Cakra breakdown on the weekly chart and the Phase 2 deviation on the monthly chart, Lamb Weston remains structurally weak. The bearish sentiment isn't irrational, and it's probably not going away anytime soon.

If you're thinking about buying the dip because the stock looks cheap, you might want to pump the brakes. According to the framework, a clearer opportunity won't emerge until the stock enters its Guna Triads, where the technical structure can better reveal whether a durable reversal back toward prior highs is even realistic. Until that happens, patience and caution are the smarter play.

Sometimes the market punishes stocks that break their patterns, and Lamb Weston is learning that lesson the hard way. The technical signals suggest this isn't over yet, and trying to catch this falling knife before the structure stabilizes is probably not the move.

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Why Lamb Weston Can't Seem to Catch a Break

MarketDash Editorial Team
4 hours ago
Lamb Weston has been in free fall since mid-2023, down over 61%. Using the Adhishthana analytical framework, we break down the technical signals that explain this prolonged decline and what investors should watch for next.

Lamb Weston (LW) has been stuck in reverse since July 2023, and if you're wondering when the selling will stop, the answer appears to be: not yet. The stock continues to trade under heavy bearish pressure, and when you look at it through the lens of the Adhishthana framework, this isn't just bad luck or temporary weakness. It's structural. Let's walk through what went wrong and why this underperformance has legs.

When a Bullish Setup Goes Sideways

On the weekly chart, Lamb Weston is currently sitting in Phase 12 of the 18-phase Adhishthana cycle. But to really understand why this stock has been such a disaster, you need to rewind to Phase 4.

Here's the setup: under Adhishthana principles, stocks typically form something called a Cakra structure between Phases 4 and 8. Think of it as an arc-like formation that usually signals bullish momentum building. When everything goes according to plan, the stock breaks out to the upside in Phase 9, launching what's known as the Himalayan Formation. It's supposed to be the good part of the story.

Lamb Weston entered Phase 4 back in December 2019 and proceeded to form a textbook Cakra pattern through Phase 8. The stock was in a strong uptrend, doing exactly what it was supposed to do. But then came Phase 9, and instead of breaking out higher like the pattern suggested, the stock reversed hard and broke its Cakra to the downside.

That's when things got ugly.

The Move of Pralaya: As Bearish as It Sounds

A downside Cakra break isn't just a disappointment. In the Adhishthana framework, it triggers one of the most bearish outcomes possible, called the Move of Pralaya.

According to Adhishthana: The Principles That Govern Wealth, Time & Tragedy:

"When the underlying breaks the Cākra on the flip side, it typically draws consolidation up to the Guna triads. The movement after the break is highly significant, and the selling momentum is extremely strong. Such a move is called the Move of Pralayā."

And that's exactly what happened. Once Lamb Weston broke that Cakra, the selling just kept coming. The stock has dropped over 61% since the breakdown, and according to the framework, this weakness is expected to persist until the stock reaches its Guna Triads in Phases 14, 15, and 16. Only at that point will there be enough information to determine whether a real reversal is even on the table.

The Monthly Chart Reveals the Deeper Problem

So why did a stock that was rallying strongly until mid-2023 suddenly collapse? The monthly chart holds the answer.

On the monthly timeframe, Lamb Weston is currently in Phase 2, which unfolds in two distinct segments under Adhishthana principles. First comes the Sankhya period, typically characterized by consolidation or corrective movement. Then comes the Buddhi period, which often delivers strong, sustained upside momentum. It's a rhythm that stocks are supposed to follow.

But Lamb Weston didn't follow the script. Instead of consolidating during the Sankhya period like it should have, the stock rallied prematurely. That kind of early strength in Phase 2 tends to be unsustainable, and it usually gets punished when the stock transitions into the Buddhi phase.

That's precisely what played out here. As Lamb Weston entered the Buddhi period, it didn't continue higher. It collapsed, giving back all those premature gains and then some. This deviation from the natural rhythm is a textbook example of how the Adhishthana framework helps identify rallies that look strong on the surface but lack the structural support to last.

What Should Investors Expect Now?

Between the downside Cakra breakdown on the weekly chart and the Phase 2 deviation on the monthly chart, Lamb Weston remains structurally weak. The bearish sentiment isn't irrational, and it's probably not going away anytime soon.

If you're thinking about buying the dip because the stock looks cheap, you might want to pump the brakes. According to the framework, a clearer opportunity won't emerge until the stock enters its Guna Triads, where the technical structure can better reveal whether a durable reversal back toward prior highs is even realistic. Until that happens, patience and caution are the smarter play.

Sometimes the market punishes stocks that break their patterns, and Lamb Weston is learning that lesson the hard way. The technical signals suggest this isn't over yet, and trying to catch this falling knife before the structure stabilizes is probably not the move.

    Why Lamb Weston Can't Seem to Catch a Break - MarketDash News