Sometimes the hardest thing to do in investing is nothing at all. That's the counterintuitive message Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is hammering home to crypto investors right now.
In a recent appearance on the When Shift Happens podcast, Pal doubled down on what he calls his "Everything Code" thesis, arguing that the recent crypto correction wasn't a disaster but rather a necessary shakeout before the next major rally. His prescription for making it through to the bullish period he envisions in 2026? Literally do nothing.
The Art of Not Trading
Pal's observation is that retail investors consistently lose money not by picking the wrong assets, but by over-trading them or piling on leverage when markets get choppy. His solution is a two-part strategy he frames as achieving "minimum regret."
First, concentrate on major Layer-1 blockchains rather than chasing the memecoin flavor of the week. "Layer-1s won't go to zero in one cycle," Pal noted, which is admittedly a low bar but also a reasonable one if you're trying to survive volatile markets.
Second, recalibrate your timeline. Forget the popular four-year halving cycle theory. Pal argues this cycle actually extends into 2026 because of massive debt rollovers coming due. "Liquidity really is required in 2026 because we've got $10 trillion to roll," he explained.
Betting Big on Sui
While Pal is bullish on the crypto market broadly, he's not spreading his bets evenly across Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), or XRP (XRP). Instead, he's "massively overweight" on Sui (SUI).
Using Metcalfe's Law, which values networks based on active users and transaction flows, Pal calculates that Sui is roughly 80% undervalued compared to Solana (SOL). He acknowledges the risk: Sui's ecosystem depends heavily on Mysten Labs proving real-world adoption. But he sees the risk-reward profile as compelling enough to justify concentration.
The Liquidity Tsunami
So what's driving Pal's optimism about 2026? He points to a confluence of factors that could flood markets with liquidity.
New banking regulations are set to allow financial institutions to hold Treasuries with lower risk weighting, potentially unleashing massive purchasing power into the system. Combine that with fiscal stimulus moves like President Donald Trump's "no tax on tips" proposal and expansionary monetary policy in China, and Pal sees a "perfect storm" brewing for risk assets.
One potential beneficiary he mentions: privacy coins like Zcash (ZEC). Though Pal admits he's cautious here, warning against "renting conviction" from prominent backers. He's waiting for ZEC to establish a "higher low" and prove the recent interest isn't just temporary capital rotation before committing funds.
The Long Game
Pal's ultimate prediction is audacious: he sees the total crypto market cap reaching $100 trillion over the next decade. For context, that would represent a roughly 30x increase from current levels.
His thesis for 2026 specifically is straightforward. The liquidity that got drained from markets in late 2025 is coming back with force. "We're 3% of the way there," Pal stated. "Just don't get shaken out."
In other words, the biggest mistake you can make right now is trying to be clever. Buy what you believe in, sit on your hands, and let the macro wave do the work. It's boring advice, but Pal would argue that's exactly the point.