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Trump Celebrates Blockbuster GDP Report While Economists Warn Of Hidden Weaknesses

MarketDash Editorial Team
2 days ago
The U.S. economy grew 4.3% in the third quarter, crushing expectations and prompting President Trump to declare victory. But economists are pointing to inflation risks, trade distortions, and questions about whether the momentum can last.

The U.S. economy just delivered a knockout punch to expectations, and President Donald Trump couldn't be happier. Third-quarter GDP clocked in at 4.3%, well above the consensus forecast of 3.3% and faster than the prior quarter's already impressive 3.8%. It's the strongest growth reading since late 2023, and Trump wasted no time taking a victory lap.

Within minutes of the Bureau of Economic Analysis release, Trump hit social media with a message that was equal parts celebration and vindication.

"Q3 GDP came in at 4.3%, blowing past expectations," Trump wrote. "The success is due to good government, and tariffs."

He went further, claiming that "60 of 61 Bloomberg economists got it wrong," and rattling off a list of wins: consumer spending was "strong," net exports were "way up," trade deficits were "way down," and there was "no inflation." Trump called it a "Trump Economic Golden Age," driven by investment that was "setting records" thanks to tax cuts and tariffs.

The headline number is undeniably impressive. But Wall Street economists are reading the fine print, and what they're finding is a lot more complicated than a simple victory lap.

The Momentum Is Real, But So Are The Risks

Economist Mohamed El-Erian acknowledged the strength but flagged some serious concerns lurking beneath the surface.

"US Q-3 GDP just shattered expectations at 4.3%," El-Erian said. "Strong growth came with a hot price deflator."

In other words, inflation isn't dead. El-Erian pointed to resilient consumer spending now being joined by an artificial intelligence-driven surge in capital expenditures. That's good news for growth, but he also highlighted what he called an "unsettling decoupling of GDP from employment," which could have economic, political, and social consequences down the road.

Gerard MacDonell, economist at 22V Research, looked at the supply side and found some reassurance. "Booming productivity and surging profits should reduce the risk of a landslide in the demand for labor," MacDonell said, though he added the concern hasn't disappeared entirely. That's a counterpoint to fears that rapid productivity gains could hurt job growth if demand starts to cool.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, was bullish on the number itself. "The GDP number this morning was exceptional," Zaccarelli said. "It was a full percentage point higher than what was expected."

But he also warned that if growth continues at this pace, the narrative could shift from worrying about a slowdown to worrying about inflation heating back up. "The path of least resistance is higher until the end of the year," Zaccarelli said.

Trade Distortions Are Inflating The Numbers

Here's where things get messy. Michael Pearce, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, argued that a big chunk of the GDP surge was driven by temporary factors that won't stick around.

"The strong rise in GDP in Q3 was flattered by a rise in defense spending and a big contribution from net trade," Pearce said.

He pointed to volatility caused by tariff frontloading, where companies rush to import goods ahead of expected tariff hikes. That creates artificial swings in trade data that boost GDP in the short term but don't reflect underlying economic strength. Pearce said business investment growth actually slowed, despite all the hype around AI spending, and real disposable incomes were basically flat. "The K-shaped consumer is alive and well," Pearce said, referencing the growing divide between higher-income and lower-income households.

Heather Long echoed those concerns, estimating that trade distortions added more than a percentage point to GDP. "Artificially low imports and 'high' exports did make GDP look better," Long said.

She noted that consumer spending still grew at a solid 3.5%, but suggested the true underlying pace is closer to 2.5% to 3%. "It depends a lot on Americans keeping their jobs," Long said.

So yes, the headline number is a stunner. But the reality is more nuanced. Trump is celebrating the 4.3% print as proof his policies are working, while economists are warning that the details beneath the surface matter a whole lot more than the headline. Growth is strong, but it's being flattered by temporary factors, inflation isn't gone, and the disconnect between GDP and employment is raising red flags.

For now, the debate continues: Is this the beginning of a golden age, or just a good quarter with an asterisk?

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Trump Celebrates Blockbuster GDP Report While Economists Warn Of Hidden Weaknesses

MarketDash Editorial Team
2 days ago
The U.S. economy grew 4.3% in the third quarter, crushing expectations and prompting President Trump to declare victory. But economists are pointing to inflation risks, trade distortions, and questions about whether the momentum can last.

The U.S. economy just delivered a knockout punch to expectations, and President Donald Trump couldn't be happier. Third-quarter GDP clocked in at 4.3%, well above the consensus forecast of 3.3% and faster than the prior quarter's already impressive 3.8%. It's the strongest growth reading since late 2023, and Trump wasted no time taking a victory lap.

Within minutes of the Bureau of Economic Analysis release, Trump hit social media with a message that was equal parts celebration and vindication.

"Q3 GDP came in at 4.3%, blowing past expectations," Trump wrote. "The success is due to good government, and tariffs."

He went further, claiming that "60 of 61 Bloomberg economists got it wrong," and rattling off a list of wins: consumer spending was "strong," net exports were "way up," trade deficits were "way down," and there was "no inflation." Trump called it a "Trump Economic Golden Age," driven by investment that was "setting records" thanks to tax cuts and tariffs.

The headline number is undeniably impressive. But Wall Street economists are reading the fine print, and what they're finding is a lot more complicated than a simple victory lap.

The Momentum Is Real, But So Are The Risks

Economist Mohamed El-Erian acknowledged the strength but flagged some serious concerns lurking beneath the surface.

"US Q-3 GDP just shattered expectations at 4.3%," El-Erian said. "Strong growth came with a hot price deflator."

In other words, inflation isn't dead. El-Erian pointed to resilient consumer spending now being joined by an artificial intelligence-driven surge in capital expenditures. That's good news for growth, but he also highlighted what he called an "unsettling decoupling of GDP from employment," which could have economic, political, and social consequences down the road.

Gerard MacDonell, economist at 22V Research, looked at the supply side and found some reassurance. "Booming productivity and surging profits should reduce the risk of a landslide in the demand for labor," MacDonell said, though he added the concern hasn't disappeared entirely. That's a counterpoint to fears that rapid productivity gains could hurt job growth if demand starts to cool.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, was bullish on the number itself. "The GDP number this morning was exceptional," Zaccarelli said. "It was a full percentage point higher than what was expected."

But he also warned that if growth continues at this pace, the narrative could shift from worrying about a slowdown to worrying about inflation heating back up. "The path of least resistance is higher until the end of the year," Zaccarelli said.

Trade Distortions Are Inflating The Numbers

Here's where things get messy. Michael Pearce, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, argued that a big chunk of the GDP surge was driven by temporary factors that won't stick around.

"The strong rise in GDP in Q3 was flattered by a rise in defense spending and a big contribution from net trade," Pearce said.

He pointed to volatility caused by tariff frontloading, where companies rush to import goods ahead of expected tariff hikes. That creates artificial swings in trade data that boost GDP in the short term but don't reflect underlying economic strength. Pearce said business investment growth actually slowed, despite all the hype around AI spending, and real disposable incomes were basically flat. "The K-shaped consumer is alive and well," Pearce said, referencing the growing divide between higher-income and lower-income households.

Heather Long echoed those concerns, estimating that trade distortions added more than a percentage point to GDP. "Artificially low imports and 'high' exports did make GDP look better," Long said.

She noted that consumer spending still grew at a solid 3.5%, but suggested the true underlying pace is closer to 2.5% to 3%. "It depends a lot on Americans keeping their jobs," Long said.

So yes, the headline number is a stunner. But the reality is more nuanced. Trump is celebrating the 4.3% print as proof his policies are working, while economists are warning that the details beneath the surface matter a whole lot more than the headline. Growth is strong, but it's being flattered by temporary factors, inflation isn't gone, and the disconnect between GDP and employment is raising red flags.

For now, the debate continues: Is this the beginning of a golden age, or just a good quarter with an asterisk?