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Economist David Rosenberg Calls 4.3% GDP Report A 'Fugazi,' Claims Real Growth Is Just 0.8%

MarketDash Editorial Team
1 day ago
Economist David Rosenberg isn't buying the 4.3% Q3 GDP headline. After stripping out government spending and depleted savings, he calculates the real growth rate at a measly 0.8%, calling the official number a complete illusion.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis dropped what looked like good news on Tuesday: third-quarter real GDP grew at a robust 4.3% annual rate, accelerating from 3.8% in Q2. Consumer spending, exports, and government expenditures all contributed to the gain. Sounds great, right?

Not according to economist David Rosenberg, who's calling the entire report a "fugazi"—Wall Street slang for something fake, phony, completely made up.

The Real Numbers Behind The Headlines

Rosenberg, who runs Rosenberg Research, isn't interested in celebrating. He argues that once you strip away the accounting tricks and unsustainable factors, the economy is barely limping along. His calculation? True growth sits at a paltry 0.8%.

"If you think the CPI data was manipulated, so was today's GDP report," Rosenberg posted on X, taking direct aim at the official figures.

His critique focuses on three key distortions. First, government spending is artificially inflating the numbers. Second, imports decreased during the quarter, which counterintuitively boosts GDP calculations since imports subtract from the total. Third, and perhaps most concerning, consumers are funding their spending by draining their savings accounts at an alarming rate.

The real red flag? Personal disposable income growth is essentially flat. If people aren't earning more money, where's the consumption boom coming from? According to Rosenberg, it's coming from savings that won't last forever.

Two Economists, Two Completely Different Nightmares

Here's where things get interesting. While Rosenberg sees a weak economy propped up by unsustainable factors, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research is looking at the same data and seeing something equally terrifying but completely opposite: an economy that's dangerously overheating.

Johnson points to nominal GDP growth—the figure before adjusting for inflation—which surged 8.2% in the third quarter. The GDP price index came in at 3.8%, well above the Federal Reserve's comfort zone. Meanwhile, the price index for gross domestic purchases accelerated to 3.4%, up sharply from 2.0% the previous quarter.

"Nominal growth in the U.S. is >8%… yet 10yr yields are AT JUST 4.17%?" Johnson questioned, suggesting the bond market is mispricing inflation risk.

In Johnson's view, the Fed's current easing cycle is "encouraging EVEN MORE inflation" in an economy that needs cooling, not stimulus. It's the exact opposite concern from Rosenberg's weakness narrative.

What The Official Data Actually Shows

The BEA report itself contains evidence supporting both interpretations, which tells you something about how complicated economic data can be. The decrease in imports did indeed boost the headline GDP number through accounting mechanics rather than genuine economic strength—a point in Rosenberg's favor.

But the acceleration in price indices and the 8.2% nominal growth figure do suggest inflationary pressures that align with Johnson's concerns about overheating.

So which is it? Is the economy secretly weak and headed for trouble, or dangerously hot and headed for different trouble? That's the question investors are wrestling with as they try to position for what comes next.

Markets Keep Climbing Anyway

Despite all the economic uncertainty and conflicting interpretations, the stock market has had a strong 2025. After weathering various federal and economic headwinds, all three major U.S. benchmark indices posted solid gains for the year.

The S&P 500 climbed 17.74% on a year-to-date basis, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 22.20% and the Dow Jones advanced 14.27%.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively, both closed higher on Tuesday. SPY gained 0.46% to $687.96, while QQQ advanced 0.47% to $622.11.

Futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices were trading lower on Wednesday as investors continued digesting the GDP report and its competing interpretations.

Back to Stock Market News

Economist David Rosenberg Calls 4.3% GDP Report A 'Fugazi,' Claims Real Growth Is Just 0.8%

MarketDash Editorial Team
1 day ago
Economist David Rosenberg isn't buying the 4.3% Q3 GDP headline. After stripping out government spending and depleted savings, he calculates the real growth rate at a measly 0.8%, calling the official number a complete illusion.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis dropped what looked like good news on Tuesday: third-quarter real GDP grew at a robust 4.3% annual rate, accelerating from 3.8% in Q2. Consumer spending, exports, and government expenditures all contributed to the gain. Sounds great, right?

Not according to economist David Rosenberg, who's calling the entire report a "fugazi"—Wall Street slang for something fake, phony, completely made up.

The Real Numbers Behind The Headlines

Rosenberg, who runs Rosenberg Research, isn't interested in celebrating. He argues that once you strip away the accounting tricks and unsustainable factors, the economy is barely limping along. His calculation? True growth sits at a paltry 0.8%.

"If you think the CPI data was manipulated, so was today's GDP report," Rosenberg posted on X, taking direct aim at the official figures.

His critique focuses on three key distortions. First, government spending is artificially inflating the numbers. Second, imports decreased during the quarter, which counterintuitively boosts GDP calculations since imports subtract from the total. Third, and perhaps most concerning, consumers are funding their spending by draining their savings accounts at an alarming rate.

The real red flag? Personal disposable income growth is essentially flat. If people aren't earning more money, where's the consumption boom coming from? According to Rosenberg, it's coming from savings that won't last forever.

Two Economists, Two Completely Different Nightmares

Here's where things get interesting. While Rosenberg sees a weak economy propped up by unsustainable factors, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research is looking at the same data and seeing something equally terrifying but completely opposite: an economy that's dangerously overheating.

Johnson points to nominal GDP growth—the figure before adjusting for inflation—which surged 8.2% in the third quarter. The GDP price index came in at 3.8%, well above the Federal Reserve's comfort zone. Meanwhile, the price index for gross domestic purchases accelerated to 3.4%, up sharply from 2.0% the previous quarter.

"Nominal growth in the U.S. is >8%… yet 10yr yields are AT JUST 4.17%?" Johnson questioned, suggesting the bond market is mispricing inflation risk.

In Johnson's view, the Fed's current easing cycle is "encouraging EVEN MORE inflation" in an economy that needs cooling, not stimulus. It's the exact opposite concern from Rosenberg's weakness narrative.

What The Official Data Actually Shows

The BEA report itself contains evidence supporting both interpretations, which tells you something about how complicated economic data can be. The decrease in imports did indeed boost the headline GDP number through accounting mechanics rather than genuine economic strength—a point in Rosenberg's favor.

But the acceleration in price indices and the 8.2% nominal growth figure do suggest inflationary pressures that align with Johnson's concerns about overheating.

So which is it? Is the economy secretly weak and headed for trouble, or dangerously hot and headed for different trouble? That's the question investors are wrestling with as they try to position for what comes next.

Markets Keep Climbing Anyway

Despite all the economic uncertainty and conflicting interpretations, the stock market has had a strong 2025. After weathering various federal and economic headwinds, all three major U.S. benchmark indices posted solid gains for the year.

The S&P 500 climbed 17.74% on a year-to-date basis, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 22.20% and the Dow Jones advanced 14.27%.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively, both closed higher on Tuesday. SPY gained 0.46% to $687.96, while QQQ advanced 0.47% to $622.11.

Futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices were trading lower on Wednesday as investors continued digesting the GDP report and its competing interpretations.