Target Corp (TGT) is having a decent week, and the timing makes sense. Holiday spending data just dropped showing consumers are still opening their wallets, and we're officially in the window where the market tends to get a seasonal boost.

Holiday Spending Looks Solid

U.S. retail sales are tracking up roughly 4% so far this holiday season, according to early data from Visa and Mastercard. These numbers come from billions of actual transactions, so they're about as real-time as retail data gets. Shoppers kept spending into December even as budgets felt tighter.

Visa reported that retail spending—excluding autos, gas, and restaurants—rose 4.2% from November 1 through December 21. Mastercard, which includes food service in its tally, logged a 3.9% year-over-year increase over the same stretch. That actually topped Mastercard's earlier forecast of 3.6%, which is a nice surprise.

Electronics were the standout winner. TVs and smartphones jumped 5.8% in Visa's data, while clothing and accessories followed with a 5.3% gain. Mastercard noted that colder weather and holiday promotions helped push apparel demand higher, and jewelry also saw solid pickup this season.

Santa Claus Is Coming to Wall Street

Markets are also moving through the traditional "Santa Claus Rally" period right now. That's the stretch covering the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the next year. For 2025, that window runs from December 24 through January 5.

Historically, this period has been positive about 79% of the time, with the S&P 500 averaging a 1.3% gain, according to Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods. He points to year-end bonuses, holiday optimism, and fund managers tweaking portfolios before the new year as the usual drivers.

"People who like to use Santa Claus in their metaphors when it comes to the market will already say he's come to town because we've had like a 4% rally in the overall market coming into the Christmas week," Woods said.

What the Charts Say

Target is showing a mixed technical picture. The stock is trading above its short-term moving averages, which is encouraging, but it's still struggling with longer-term trends. The 20-day simple moving average sits above the 50-day, indicating some bullish momentum in the near term. However, the 50-day remains below the 200-day, which suggests the longer-term trend is still bearish.

The RSI is at 52.66, sitting in neutral territory. That means the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further movement in either direction.

The MACD is above its signal line, which points to bullish momentum in the short term. If that holds, the stock could continue pushing higher.

Key levels to watch include support at $88.50 and resistance at $99.00. A bounce off support could signal a potential reversal, while a breakout above resistance would make the case for continued upside much stronger.

Here's the reality check: Over the past 12 months, Target has fallen 27.25%. The stock is sitting at just 20.9% of its 52-week range, meaning it's much closer to its lows than its highs. The broader trend hasn't fully turned yet.

TGT Price Action: Target shares were up 2.13% at $96.31 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro.