Here's a fun fact about the American Dream: it now requires a calculator and some uncomfortable math. Homeownership has become so expensive relative to renting that you'd need home prices to crater by roughly 24% just to make the monthly numbers competitive. That's not happening anytime soon, according to analysts at Stifel, which means millions of Americans are effectively locked into renting whether they like it or not.

For the nation's biggest apartment landlords, this is shaping up to be very good news.

When The Math Stops Working

The buy-versus-rent calculation has diverged to historic extremes. Stifel's latest outlook shows that the gap has widened so dramatically that would-be homebuyers are becoming what the firm calls a "captive audience" of renters. This shift has prompted an upgrade of the Multifamily REIT sector to "Overweight" status as demand strengthens while supply contracts.

Redfin is calling 2026 the beginning of "The Great Housing Reset"—a period where wage growth finally starts outpacing home price appreciation. But here's the catch: relief will arrive at a glacial pace. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to average 6.3% throughout 2026, barely down from 2025's 6.6% average.

"It won't be enough to make homebuying affordable in the short run for Gen Zers and young families," Redfin analysts noted. Translation: expect more roommates, delayed life milestones, and a whole lot of people renting indefinitely.

Supply Meets Demand (Or Doesn't)

The timing couldn't be better for landlords. Just as demand from priced-out buyers solidifies, new apartment construction is falling off a cliff. After the building boom of 2021 and 2022, data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows housing starts cooling considerably.

Stifel estimates that net apartment deliveries will drop to approximately 243,000 units in 2026—well below the post-2000 long-term average of 285,000 units. Less supply plus steady demand equals renewed pricing power for landlords. Redfin forecasts nationwide rent increases of 2% to 3% in 2026.

That's a significant turnaround from the oversupply concerns that pressured the sector recently.

The Investment Case

Wall Street is paying attention to this dynamic. After a rough 2025, apartment REITs are now being eyed as a contrarian value play. Stifel points out that the sector is trading at just 15.3x funds from operations (FFO), substantially cheaper than its 10-year average of 19.2x.

With property values stabilizing and the rent-versus-buy equation firmly tilted in their favor, major players like Camden Property Trust (CPT) stand to benefit from a rental market that has become the default option for millions of Americans.

While "The Great Reset" may eventually restore some balance to housing markets, 2026 is looking like the year landlords regain leverage. For investors watching the space, that could mean opportunity.

ETFs To Watch

For those interested in gaining exposure to real estate and REITs in 2026, here are several tracking ETFs worth considering: