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Markets Hit Records, But One Economist Says Americans Are Missing the Real Story

MarketDash Editorial Team
3 hours ago
University of Michigan professor Justin Wolfers argues that celebrating U.S. stock market records misses a crucial point: American markets have actually underperformed the rest of the world by a significant margin this year.

Here's an uncomfortable truth about those record-breaking Wall Street numbers: they might be telling you the wrong story. University of Michigan professor Justin Wolfers is pushing back hard against the media's celebration of S&P 500 highs, calling the fixation "economic illiteracy" that ignores what's actually happening in global markets.

The Comparison Nobody's Making

Speaking to MS NOW, Wolfers laid out the math that changes the whole narrative. Sure, the S&P 500 has climbed roughly 18% over the past year. That sounds impressive until you learn that global markets excluding the United States have jumped 30% during the same period.

"We've underperformed the global market by 12%," Wolfers explained, describing it as a "miserable year for the American investor" when you actually benchmark against international peers. Without that context, he argues, the headlines present a fundamentally distorted picture of how American markets are really performing.

It's a bit like bragging about your investment returns without mentioning that your neighbor doubled them with less risk. The absolute numbers look good, but the relative performance tells a different story entirely.

When The Data Stops Making Sense

Beyond the stock market comparisons, Wolfers warned that key economic indicators are currently "messy" and sending contradictory signals. Consider this oddity: third-quarter GDP surged by over 4%, but a separate measure called Gross Domestic Income showed much more modest 2.4% growth. Those two figures typically track closely together, and when they don't, it suggests something's off in the underlying data.

Wolfers also pointed to a stark disconnect between output and labor markets. Despite high production numbers, employment growth has "plummeted." He cautioned that early economic data often gets revised significantly and that the current numbers fail to tell a consistent story about actual prosperity.

Two Economies, One Country

The analysis aligns with concerns raised by CNBC contributor Ron Insana about a bifurcated economy. While wealthy Americans benefit from asset appreciation and rising stock portfolios, data shows lower-income households are increasingly turning to "buy now, pay later" services just to handle holiday shopping.

"If you don't own stocks, the suffering is real," Insana noted, reinforcing Wolfers' point that top-line market numbers often mask the financial strain facing the broader public. It's the classic K-shaped recovery: some people are doing great, others are struggling, and the averages hide both realities.

Meanwhile, The Rally Continues

On Christmas Eve, both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices closed at record highs, kicking off what traders call the Santa Claus rally. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has gained 18.12%, while the Nasdaq Composite has surged 22.47% and the Dow Jones has climbed 14.95%.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices respectively, both closed higher on Wednesday. SPY advanced 0.35% to $690.38, while QQQ gained 0.29% to $623.93.

Futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices were trading lower on Friday, suggesting the holiday cheer might be short-lived.

Back to Stock Market News

Markets Hit Records, But One Economist Says Americans Are Missing the Real Story

MarketDash Editorial Team
3 hours ago
University of Michigan professor Justin Wolfers argues that celebrating U.S. stock market records misses a crucial point: American markets have actually underperformed the rest of the world by a significant margin this year.

Here's an uncomfortable truth about those record-breaking Wall Street numbers: they might be telling you the wrong story. University of Michigan professor Justin Wolfers is pushing back hard against the media's celebration of S&P 500 highs, calling the fixation "economic illiteracy" that ignores what's actually happening in global markets.

The Comparison Nobody's Making

Speaking to MS NOW, Wolfers laid out the math that changes the whole narrative. Sure, the S&P 500 has climbed roughly 18% over the past year. That sounds impressive until you learn that global markets excluding the United States have jumped 30% during the same period.

"We've underperformed the global market by 12%," Wolfers explained, describing it as a "miserable year for the American investor" when you actually benchmark against international peers. Without that context, he argues, the headlines present a fundamentally distorted picture of how American markets are really performing.

It's a bit like bragging about your investment returns without mentioning that your neighbor doubled them with less risk. The absolute numbers look good, but the relative performance tells a different story entirely.

When The Data Stops Making Sense

Beyond the stock market comparisons, Wolfers warned that key economic indicators are currently "messy" and sending contradictory signals. Consider this oddity: third-quarter GDP surged by over 4%, but a separate measure called Gross Domestic Income showed much more modest 2.4% growth. Those two figures typically track closely together, and when they don't, it suggests something's off in the underlying data.

Wolfers also pointed to a stark disconnect between output and labor markets. Despite high production numbers, employment growth has "plummeted." He cautioned that early economic data often gets revised significantly and that the current numbers fail to tell a consistent story about actual prosperity.

Two Economies, One Country

The analysis aligns with concerns raised by CNBC contributor Ron Insana about a bifurcated economy. While wealthy Americans benefit from asset appreciation and rising stock portfolios, data shows lower-income households are increasingly turning to "buy now, pay later" services just to handle holiday shopping.

"If you don't own stocks, the suffering is real," Insana noted, reinforcing Wolfers' point that top-line market numbers often mask the financial strain facing the broader public. It's the classic K-shaped recovery: some people are doing great, others are struggling, and the averages hide both realities.

Meanwhile, The Rally Continues

On Christmas Eve, both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices closed at record highs, kicking off what traders call the Santa Claus rally. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has gained 18.12%, while the Nasdaq Composite has surged 22.47% and the Dow Jones has climbed 14.95%.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices respectively, both closed higher on Wednesday. SPY advanced 0.35% to $690.38, while QQQ gained 0.29% to $623.93.

Futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices were trading lower on Friday, suggesting the holiday cheer might be short-lived.