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The Real Threat Isn't Just How Much Debt America Has — It's Who's Buying It

MarketDash Editorial Team
3 hours ago
A former Treasury insider is sounding the alarm on a shift that could reshape interest rates and national security: foreign governments are backing away from U.S. debt, and hedge funds are filling the void.

Sure, everyone knows America's debt is massive. But here's the part that should keep you up at night: it's not just the size that matters, it's who's holding the bag.

Geng Ngarmboonanant, a managing director at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and former deputy chief of staff to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, wrote in the New York Times on Friday that Americans need to pay attention to a dramatic shift in who's buying U.S. debt.

The Great Treasury Retreat

Foreign governments used to be the backbone of the Treasury market, gobbling up U.S. debt like it was going out of style. In the early 2010s, they held over 40% of all Treasuries. Today? Less than 15%. That's not a gradual decline — that's a sprint for the exits.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has been shrinking its own Treasury portfolio, dumping approximately $1.5 trillion worth in recent years. So if foreign governments and the Fed are both backing away, who's picking up the slack?

Private investors have stepped in, but they're not doing it out of patriotic duty. They want returns, which means higher interest rates. And hedge funds? They've doubled their stake in the U.S. debt market, bringing with them the kind of volatility that makes everyone nervous. The result is messier markets and borrowing costs that swing harder and faster than before.

When Interest Beats Defense

Here's a sobering milestone: the U.S. now spends more on interest payments for its national debt than it does on defense. Let that sink in. The national debt has blown past $38 trillion, and servicing that debt has become the government's top expense, surpassing even military spending.

That's a fundamental reshaping of fiscal priorities, whether anyone intended it or not.

Why Wall Street Isn't Panicking (Yet)

Despite all this drama, bond vigilantes haven't exactly stormed the gates. Long-term Treasury yields remain relatively controlled, even with persistent inflation and massive issuance. The panic has focused elsewhere — Japan, for instance — while U.S. debt continues to find buyers.

Still, experts aren't reassured. Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, has highlighted the alarming speed at which debt is piling up. Richard Haass from the Council on Foreign Relations has gone further, warning that the $38 trillion debt poses a genuine national security threat. His concern isn't abstract: rising debt could constrain resource allocation and weaken U.S. leverage on the global stage, potentially triggering what he calls a "national security crisis."

The bond market might look calm on the surface, but the underlying shifts in who holds America's debt tell a different story. When your creditors change from stable foreign governments to profit-seeking hedge funds, the dynamics change too. And those dynamics ultimately determine what you pay for your mortgage, your car loan, and everything else tied to interest rates.

Back to Stock Market News

The Real Threat Isn't Just How Much Debt America Has — It's Who's Buying It

MarketDash Editorial Team
3 hours ago
A former Treasury insider is sounding the alarm on a shift that could reshape interest rates and national security: foreign governments are backing away from U.S. debt, and hedge funds are filling the void.

Sure, everyone knows America's debt is massive. But here's the part that should keep you up at night: it's not just the size that matters, it's who's holding the bag.

Geng Ngarmboonanant, a managing director at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and former deputy chief of staff to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, wrote in the New York Times on Friday that Americans need to pay attention to a dramatic shift in who's buying U.S. debt.

The Great Treasury Retreat

Foreign governments used to be the backbone of the Treasury market, gobbling up U.S. debt like it was going out of style. In the early 2010s, they held over 40% of all Treasuries. Today? Less than 15%. That's not a gradual decline — that's a sprint for the exits.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has been shrinking its own Treasury portfolio, dumping approximately $1.5 trillion worth in recent years. So if foreign governments and the Fed are both backing away, who's picking up the slack?

Private investors have stepped in, but they're not doing it out of patriotic duty. They want returns, which means higher interest rates. And hedge funds? They've doubled their stake in the U.S. debt market, bringing with them the kind of volatility that makes everyone nervous. The result is messier markets and borrowing costs that swing harder and faster than before.

When Interest Beats Defense

Here's a sobering milestone: the U.S. now spends more on interest payments for its national debt than it does on defense. Let that sink in. The national debt has blown past $38 trillion, and servicing that debt has become the government's top expense, surpassing even military spending.

That's a fundamental reshaping of fiscal priorities, whether anyone intended it or not.

Why Wall Street Isn't Panicking (Yet)

Despite all this drama, bond vigilantes haven't exactly stormed the gates. Long-term Treasury yields remain relatively controlled, even with persistent inflation and massive issuance. The panic has focused elsewhere — Japan, for instance — while U.S. debt continues to find buyers.

Still, experts aren't reassured. Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, has highlighted the alarming speed at which debt is piling up. Richard Haass from the Council on Foreign Relations has gone further, warning that the $38 trillion debt poses a genuine national security threat. His concern isn't abstract: rising debt could constrain resource allocation and weaken U.S. leverage on the global stage, potentially triggering what he calls a "national security crisis."

The bond market might look calm on the surface, but the underlying shifts in who holds America's debt tell a different story. When your creditors change from stable foreign governments to profit-seeking hedge funds, the dynamics change too. And those dynamics ultimately determine what you pay for your mortgage, your car loan, and everything else tied to interest rates.