Silver just did something remarkable: it climbed over 25% in ten days, flirted with $85 per ounce on Monday, then backed off to trade around $80. The culprit? China's looming export restrictions that have traders bracing for a supply crunch that could reshape global markets.

But here's where it gets interesting. While silver bugs are celebrating, Rose AI founder Alexander Campbell is pumping the brakes. Hard.

The 'Scary' Phase Has Arrived

In a weekend market update, Campbell laid out a contrarian view: the long-term story for silver is solid, but right now? This is exactly the wrong time to jump in.

"I wouldn't buy fresh here," Campbell said bluntly. His reasoning centers on volatility from potential tax selling and recent margin hikes by the CME that could trigger turbulence. Instead of chasing the rally, he's advising investors to "accumulate in the coming drawdown." Translation: wait for the dip, then pounce.

It's a disciplined approach when everything in your brain is screaming "buy the breakout." But Campbell's point is that upcoming red candles should be viewed as opportunities, not warning signs.

China Drops the Export Hammer

The real driver behind this surge is China's decision to impose export licensing requirements on silver, effective January 1st, 2026. China is the world's largest net exporter of the metal, and suddenly restricting that flow has set off alarm bells across industries.

Even Elon Musk weighed in on X, warning: "This is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes."

The supply squeeze is already creating bizarre market dynamics. While Western paper markets on COMEX are trading silver around $77 to $80 per ounce, physical silver in Shanghai has hit $91. That's a massive arbitrage gap that screams one thing: physical metal is getting scarce, fast.

Margin Hikes and Sky-High Targets

The CME tried to cool things down by raising margin requirements to $25,000 per contract. But Campbell argues this "margin kill switch" won't work like it did in 2011, because leverage in the system is far lower now. The conditions just aren't the same.

Meanwhile, the silver bulls aren't backing down. "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author Robert Kiyosaki celebrated the break above $80, asking whether $200 is next. Economist Peter Schiff went further, declaring this "historic bull market still has a long way to run."

The structural case is compelling: solar panels and AI infrastructure are devouring silver at unprecedented rates, creating a deficit that China's export restrictions will only deepen.

As of publication, silver spot prices were down 0.50% to $78.62 per ounce. The recent record high reached $83.99 per ounce, with annual gains of 168.57% and six-month returns of 119.08%.

For investors looking to gain exposure, here's a snapshot of physical silver and silver miner ETFs worth considering:

The message from Campbell is clear: silver's story isn't over, but timing matters. Don't chase the rally into the stratosphere. Wait for gravity to do its thing, then step in when prices come back down to earth.