Target Corp (TGT) shares are catching their breath Monday morning, trading marginally lower after Friday's dramatic surge. The pause comes after activist investor interest sparked optimism about potential strategic changes at the struggling retailer.
The Activist Catalyst
Friday's rally wasn't random. A Financial Times report revealed that Toms Capital Investment Management has acquired a significant stake in Target, and investors clearly liked what they heard. The thinking here is straightforward: activist investors don't just buy stock and watch, they push for changes that could unlock value.
Target responded to the report by reaffirming its commitment to "getting back to growth" and improving its merchandise and shopping experience. Translation: they're taking the activist interest seriously.
Why Toms Capital Might Be Circling
The timing of this activist involvement isn't coincidental. Target is navigating some rough waters right now. The company's recent third-quarter earnings report painted a mixed picture: adjusted earnings per share of $1.78 beat estimates, which sounds great, but sales of $25.27 billion represented a 1.5% year-over-year decline. Not so great.
The details get worse. Comparable sales fell 2.7%, driven by a 3.8% drop in store traffic. That's the kind of number that keeps retail executives up at night. Management also cut its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS outlook to a range of $7.00 to $8.00, down from prior guidance.
Target has been trying to modernize, including a deepened partnership with OpenAI to enhance store operations and supply chain forecasting. But the weak quarterly performance suggests there's plenty of work for an activist investor to tackle.
The Contrarian Case
Here's where things get interesting. Benzinga Edge data assigns Target a high Value score of 86.94, suggesting the stock is fundamentally undervalued. The flip side? A lagging Momentum score of just 13.21, reflecting the stock's recent struggles.
That's a classic contrarian setup: a stock that's cheap but unloved.
Where the Stock Stands
Target shares were down 0.88% at $98.71 at the time of publication Monday. The current price sits within a 52-week range of $83.44 to $145.08, reflecting considerable volatility over the past year. The stock has recovered notably from the lower end of that range, but still trades well below its 52-week high.
The question now is whether activist involvement can be the catalyst to push Target toward the upper end of that range, or whether the retailer's operational challenges prove too stubborn to fix quickly.