Breaking From the Playbook
When a company suddenly changes how it communicates with investors, people notice. That's exactly what happened when Tesla Inc. (TSLA) decided to preemptively release its quarterly delivery estimates, a move Gary Black, managing director at The Future Fund LLC, is calling "highly unusual."
Here's what makes this interesting: analyst consensus for fourth quarter deliveries sat comfortably around 445,000 vehicles. Then Tesla issued a press release showing estimates of just 423,000 deliveries. That's a gap of about 22,000 vehicles, and Black thinks someone at the electric vehicle maker wanted that lower number distributed as widely as possible.
Of those 423,000 expected deliveries, over 388,000 would come from Model Y and Model 3 sales, according to Tesla's own data.
Reading Between the Lines
Black isn't just scratching his head over the unusual communications strategy. He's connecting dots that point to something bigger brewing in Austin. The investor suggested that this delivery shortfall announcement could be strategically timed with a major robotaxi development, specifically Tesla announcing the removal of "some or all safety monitors" from its robotaxis operating in the Texas capital.
This theory isn't coming out of nowhere. Elon Musk has confirmed that Tesla has been conducting driverless testing operations with its robotaxi fleet in Austin. The company's Cybercab has been spotted around the city, though observers haven't been able to definitively determine whether a human was behind the wheel or if the vehicle was operating autonomously.
A Chorus of Concern
Black isn't alone in his pessimistic outlook for Tesla's fourth quarter performance. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management has been even more bearish, predicting deliveries will land around just 415,000 vehicles. Munster points to headwinds like the expiration of the Federal EV Credit as major factors weighing on demand.
The numbers paint a challenging picture. Tesla's November U.S. sales dropped 23% compared to the previous year, while European sales declined nearly 12% year-over-year during the same period. Meanwhile, Chinese competitor BYD Co. Ltd. (BYDDY) recorded a staggering 222% sales growth in Europe, highlighting the competitive pressure Tesla faces abroad.
Market Reaction
Investors didn't take the news lightly. According to market data, TSLA declined 3.27% to $459.64 at market close on Monday, with additional losses of 0.51% to $457.28 in after-hours trading. The stock has been under pressure as delivery concerns mount and competition intensifies both domestically and internationally.
The question now is whether Black's theory holds water. If Tesla is indeed preparing to announce a significant milestone in its robotaxi program, perhaps the company is trying to manage expectations around traditional vehicle deliveries while pivoting investor attention toward its autonomous future. It's a delicate balancing act, getting people excited about tomorrow's technology while explaining away today's sales challenges.