Alcoa Corp. (AA) is having a moment. The aluminum producer rocketed into the top 10th percentile of momentum-ranked stocks this week, with its momentum score leaping from 84.25 to 92.28. That 8-point jump signals strong price strength and growing investor confidence as the aluminum market stages a recovery.
What's Driving the Momentum Surge
The momentum score reflects robust relative price performance and lower volatility compared to peers across multiple timeframes. Alcoa's upward trend is consistent whether you look at short, medium, or long-term periods, which is exactly what momentum investors want to see.
The company's fundamental position helps explain the enthusiasm. Alcoa supplies lightweight aluminum alloys to Ford Motor Co. (F) for F-150 truck bodies and to RTX Corp. (RTX)'s Pratt & Whitney division for jet engine components. When aluminum prices rise and industrial demand holds steady, Alcoa sits in a pretty sweet spot.
Beyond momentum, the stock also scores well on quality and value metrics, suggesting this isn't just a speculative run.
Wall Street Gets More Bullish
Analyst upgrades have added fuel to the rally. Wells Fargo raised its price target to $58 from $40, while Citi lifted its target to $54 from $42 in December, according to Nasdaq and TradingView data. Other firms including UBS and BMO have maintained positive views, pushing the consensus rating to "Buy" with an average price target around $49-50.
Those aren't minor tweaks. Wells Fargo's upgrade represents a 45% increase in its target, reflecting real conviction that Alcoa's earnings potential has materially improved.
The Aluminum Market Is Waking Up
Here's the backdrop that matters: aluminum prices have climbed nearly 17% in 2025, recently approaching $2,970 per tonne. That's the highest level since May 2022, driven by tightening global supply from smelter shutdowns and China's production caps.
Analysts note that Alcoa's vertical integration positions the company for significant EBITDA upside during cyclical recoveries like this one. When commodity prices rise, producers with efficient operations and integrated supply chains tend to see margins expand rapidly.
Stock Performance Tells the Story
The numbers speak for themselves. Alcoa shares have surged 41.54% year-to-date, 82.21% over the past six months, and 29.10% in the last month alone. That kind of performance doesn't happen by accident in a commodity business.
The stock closed 0.88% lower at $53.77 on Monday, then ticked up 1.04% in premarket trading Tuesday. Even with minor daily fluctuations, the longer-term trajectory remains firmly upward as the aluminum recovery thesis plays out.