Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB) is having quite a moment. The stock pushed higher Tuesday, extending what's been an impressive 2025 rally fueled by bullish analyst commentary, a swelling defense backlog, and broader excitement rippling through the space sector. Shares are now trading near the upper end of their 52-week range, and investors seem to be buying the growth story.
The Analyst Case
Needham analyst Ryan Koontz made waves last week by reiterating his Buy rating and bumping his price target to $90 from $63. His thesis? Rocket Lab is positioning itself as a credible alternative to SpaceX, which is no small feat given SpaceX's dominance in the launch market.
Koontz highlighted the company's expanding space-systems segment, which supplies satellite buses and components to government and commercial constellation customers. This business is increasingly profitable and helps fund the launch operations side of the house. It's a smart flywheel that gives Rocket Lab multiple revenue streams beyond just putting rockets in the air.
He also pointed to the Electron small-lift rocket's proven track record and the upcoming Neutron medium-lift vehicle. Neutron's first commercial missions are slated for 2026, and if they go well, they could meaningfully boost earnings and cash flow. That's the kind of milestone that tends to move stocks.
Defense Backlog Doubles
Rocket Lab's credibility in national-security space got a major boost after it won a Space Development Agency Tracking Layer Tranche 3 contract. This deal more than doubled the company's space-systems backlog to roughly $1.4 billion and put Rocket Lab in the same conversation as legacy defense primes like Lockheed Martin and L3Harris. That's not just a revenue win; it's a validation of the company's capabilities in a high-stakes, high-margin market.
The SpaceX IPO Effect
Here's where things get interesting for the broader sector. Speculation has been building that Elon Musk's SpaceX could pursue an initial public offering in 2026, potentially at a valuation near $1.5 trillion. If that happens, sector specialist Andrew Chanin argues it could reset valuations for public space companies and draw fresh capital into listed names like Rocket Lab and others in the Procure Space ETF (UFO). The idea is that a SpaceX IPO would legitimize the sector in a way that lifts all boats, extending the rally in space stocks well into 2026.
Momentum and Price Action
The numbers back up the bullish sentiment. Market data shows Rocket Lab carries a Momentum score of 97.24, signaling exceptionally strong recent price performance relative to the broader market. Shares were up 3.08% at $72.29 at the time of publication Tuesday.
The current price sits 26.9% above the 50-day average and 73% above the 200-day average. Those are big moves that reflect real investor confidence in Rocket Lab's growth prospects in aerospace. Whether the momentum holds depends on execution, but for now, the market is clearly betting on this company's trajectory.