If you spent 2025 waiting for altcoins to finally have their moment, you're probably still waiting. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen just dropped his year-end reflections, and the message is pretty blunt: macroeconomic forces matter more than whatever narrative Twitter is pumping this week.
In his 2025 "Reflections" video, Cowen made the case that while Bitcoin's four-year cycle technically survived with a post-halving peak in Q4, what came next looked nothing like the fireworks of past cycles. Instead of a spectacular blow-off top followed by a sharp crash, we got something more tedious: a slow, grinding decline driven by tight liquidity and macro headwinds. Think 2019, not 2018.
Where Was Everyone?
The biggest letdown of 2025? The altseason that crypto enthusiasts kept insisting was "right around the corner" never actually showed up.
Here's what went wrong: Retail investors simply didn't return. Social media interest kept making lower highs, and institutional money remained almost exclusively focused on Bitcoin (BTC). Without that retail-driven mania fueling speculative bets, altcoins just kept bleeding against Bitcoin.
The numbers tell a sobering story. Solana (SOL) versus Bitcoin reverted to October 2022 levels. XRP (XRP) gave back most of its early-2025 gains despite briefly surging past $3. As Cowen put it bluntly: "There is never a guarantee of an altseason." Without retail enthusiasm, diversifying into altcoins tends to underperform just holding Bitcoin.
The Apathy Era
Cowen's calling this a 2019-style "apathy" top, a gradual bleed rather than violent capitulation. Looking ahead to 2026, he's expecting a possible countertrend rally that could backtest the 50-week moving average around $100,000, followed by a final bottom later in the year if liquidity stays restrictive.
The pattern here matters: no dramatic crash, just a persistent grind lower until the Federal Reserve pivots back toward actual quantitative easing in response to economic stress. Until then, Bitcoin may just consolidate and churn.
The Surprising Winner
While crypto struggled, something unexpected happened: precious metals quietly delivered strong performance. Gold and silver helped offset crypto volatility in ways Cowen admits he underestimated. In a particularly stark comparison, he noted that altcoins priced in silver are now trading at lower lows than 2022. Yes, you read that right—metals preserved purchasing power better than most "tech" tokens.
What Now?
Cowen's message heading into 2026 is straightforward: stay cautious. The "easy money" phase of 2023–2024 is over. A sustained bullish shift would require Bitcoin to reclaim key technical levels, like consistent weekly closes above the 20-week moving average.
The bottom line? The super cycle narrative failed. The altseason narrative failed. Bitcoin remains the market's anchor, and until liquidity meaningfully improves, defensive positioning and a healthy dose of humility look like the smartest play.