Billionaire investor Bill Ackman is revisiting what might be his longest-running conviction play. In a post on X Tuesday, he doubled down on Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC), calling their liberation from federal oversight his "Best Idea for 2026."
Ackman pointed back to a detailed roadmap he laid out exactly one year ago, outlining how to end the 18-year conservatorship that's controlled these government-sponsored enterprises since the 2008 financial meltdown. His pitch? A pragmatic three-step approach he describes as "walk before you run" that could stabilize housing markets while handing the U.S. Treasury a windfall worth hundreds of billions.
The Roadmap to Freedom
Ackman's plan breaks down into three straightforward moves. First, the Treasury and Federal Housing Finance Agency should officially recognize that Fannie and Freddie have fully repaid their original $190 billion bailout. These companies have already kicked back over $300 billion in profits to the government, so calling it even seems reasonable.
Second, the government should exercise the warrants it holds for a 79.9% ownership stake in both entities. This would formalize taxpayer ownership and create what Ackman estimates as a mark-to-market gain exceeding $300 billion. Not a bad return on a crisis-era rescue package.
Third, move the stocks from their current over-the-counter trading status back to the New York Stock Exchange. This would open the floodgates for institutional investors who need the liquidity that only a major exchange listing can provide.
Why 2026 Matters
Ackman sees this year as the inflection point for what he calls an "asymmetric" opportunity. By relisting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Trump administration would have a three-year window to nail down capital requirements and corporate governance structures before full privatization.
The numbers get interesting here. Ackman projects that if the companies trade at 16x and 13x their estimated 2026 earnings respectively, shareholders could see gains of 300% to 400%. That's the kind of upside that makes hedge fund managers wake up smiling.
He's not alone in this thinking. "The Big Short" investor Michael Burry floated a similar thesis in early December, suggesting the government is gearing up for a massive re-privatization through an IPO that could value the pair at $500 billion by 2026. Burry also noted that the Trump administration seems eager to "get Big Homebuilders going" and inject life into housing markets.
More Than Just a Trade
For Ackman, this isn't merely about scoring a profitable trade. Releasing Fannie and Freddie would strip roughly $8 trillion in liabilities off the government's balance sheet while preserving the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage that's become synonymous with the American dream of homeownership.
By granting these mortgage giants their independence from federal conservatorship, Ackman argues, the government could transform a crisis-era burden into one of the most successful taxpayer investments in financial history. Not bad for two companies that were left for dead during the housing crash.
Whether 2026 becomes the year Ackman's patience finally pays off remains to be seen. But after 18 years in government limbo, Fannie and Freddie might finally be ready for their second act.