Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) shares edged lower on Wednesday, giving back some of Tuesday's gains as the broader market took a breather. Nothing dramatic here, just the usual ebb and flow. But the more interesting question is what's been fueling the stock's impressive run lately.
Why Analysts Are Getting Excited
Needham analyst Ryan Koontz recently doubled down on his bullish thesis, reiterating a Buy rating and boosting his price target to $90 from $63. The reason? Rocket Lab is increasingly looking like a credible competitor to SpaceX, which is no small feat.
The company's space-systems segment, which supplies satellite buses and components, is quietly becoming a powerhouse. That business has helped push Rocket Lab's backlog to roughly $1.4 billion, a number that keeps growing.
Here's where it gets really interesting: Rocket Lab recently secured a contract with the Space Development Agency that more than doubled its space-systems backlog. This isn't just any win—it puts the company in the same conversation as established defense contractors like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and L3Harris (LHX). That's a significant validation of Rocket Lab's capabilities in the national-security space market.
Adding fuel to the fire, sentiment across the aerospace sector has been strengthening as speculation swirls that Elon Musk's SpaceX might pursue an IPO in 2026 at a valuation approaching $1.5 trillion. A rising tide tends to lift all boats, and Rocket Lab appears positioned to benefit.
The Technical Picture Looks Strong
From a technical standpoint, Rocket Lab is showing impressive strength. The stock is currently trading 16.1% above its 20-day simple moving average and 32.1% above its 100-day moving average, suggesting robust short-term momentum. Over the past 12 months, shares have surged 175.93%, and the stock is sitting much closer to its 52-week highs than lows.
The RSI comes in at 62.41, which falls in neutral territory—not overbought, but showing strength. Meanwhile, the MACD is above its signal line, indicating bullish momentum. Together, these indicators suggest the stock has room to run.
- Key Resistance: $74.00
- Key Support: $58.50
What to Expect from Earnings
Investors are already looking ahead to the company's next earnings report, scheduled for February 2026. Here's what analysts are projecting:
- EPS Estimate: Loss of 9 cents (Improved from a loss of 10 cents YoY)
- Revenue Estimate: $177.85 million (Up from $132.39 million YoY)
- Analyst Consensus: Buy Rating ($53.23 Avg Price Target)
Note: The average price target suggests the stock is trading at a premium to analyst targets.
The revenue growth trajectory is particularly noteworthy—analysts expect a jump from $132.39 million to $177.85 million year-over-year. That's the kind of growth that justifies investor enthusiasm.
ETF Investors Take Note
Rocket Lab has become a meaningful holding in several aerospace and defense ETFs:
- SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSE:XAR): 5.66% Weight
- ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (NASDAQ:ARKX): 7.62% Weight
- ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF (NASDAQ:ARKX): 7.62% Weight
With significant weighting across these funds, Rocket Lab's performance can meaningfully impact investors who own these ETFs. If you're tracking aerospace and defense through these vehicles, you're getting substantial exposure to Rocket Lab's story.
Current Price Action
Rocket Lab shares were down 1.22% at $69.58 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to market data.
The company's momentum score of 97.61 underscores strong technical strength relative to peers, with positive short-, medium-, and long-term price trends all pointing in the right direction. For a company that's gone from launch provider to SpaceX competitor, that's a trajectory worth watching.