The cryptocurrency markets kicked off 2026 the way holidays usually go: quietly, with most traders still nursing their hangovers or scrolling through their phones from the couch. Bitcoin (BTC) traded essentially flat, up less than 1% to $88,601.49 as of 8:25 p.m. ET, while Ethereum (ETH) hovered just below the psychologically important $3,000 mark at $2,999.74.

Trading volumes reflected the holiday mood, dropping 42% for Bitcoin and 37% for Ethereum over the last 24 hours. But not everything was asleep—Dogecoin (DOGE) rallied 7.20% to $0.1265, reminding everyone that meme coins don't respect holidays or logic.

Here's how the major cryptocurrencies performed on the first day of the new year:

Fear Levels Drop (Slightly)

Bitcoin has been wobbling between $87,000 and $88,000, with bulls waiting for a decisive push above $90,000. It's the kind of price action that makes chart-watchers obsessively refresh their screens while pretending to enjoy their New Year's festivities.

Ethereum continues to bang its head against the $3,000 ceiling like it owes money on the other side. Despite multiple attempts, the second-largest cryptocurrency hasn't been able to establish a foothold above this round number resistance.

The broader market showed some signs of stabilization, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index improving from "Extreme Fear" to just regular "Fear." That's progress, sort of—like going from panicking to merely worrying.

The volatility didn't spare leveraged traders. In the past 24 hours, 106,108 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations reaching $124.01 million, according to Coinglass. Bitcoin's open interest rose 1.60% in the last 24 hours, suggesting new positions are entering the market despite the holiday lull.

Meanwhile, over 67% of Binance traders with open BTC positions were positioned long, according to the Long/Short ratio, down from 72% a day earlier. That slight decrease in bullish positioning might indicate some profit-taking or uncertainty about near-term direction.

Among smaller cryptocurrencies with market caps above $100 million, River led gainers with a 36.21% surge to $15.33, followed by Story (IP) up 19.04% to $2.01, and Aerodrome Finance (AERO) climbing 17.21% to $0.4738.

The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $3 trillion, following an increase of 0.97% in the last 24 hours.

Stock Futures Start the Year on a High Note

While crypto markets drifted, stock futures edged higher on New Year's Day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures rose 65 points, or 0.13%, as of 7:45 p.m. EDT. Futures tied to the S&P 500 rallied 0.14%, while Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.16%.

These modest gains follow a strong 2025, when the S&P 500 climbed 16% and the Nasdaq Composite surged 20%. Markets were closed for the New Year's holiday and will resume normal trading on Friday.

The $100,000 Question

Here's where things get interesting. Michaël van de Poppe, a widely followed cryptocurrency analyst and trader, noted that Bitcoin is facing strong resistance at its 21-day moving average, somewhere between $88,000 and $89,000.

"I think, once it cracks that level, things should go fast to $100,000," the analyst predicted. "I'm very, very, very excited for the upcoming days."

Ted Pillows, another popular cryptocurrency market commentator, spotted an "Adam and Eve" pattern on Bitcoin's 4-hour chart, where a close above the $94,000 neckline could drive prices to $103,000-$105,000.

For those unfamiliar with technical analysis poetry, the Adam and Eve is a reversal pattern that can appear in both uptrends and downtrends, characterized by a double top or double bottom formation. Whether it actually predicts future price movements or just gives traders something to talk about is a question we'll leave to the philosophers.

The setup certainly looks intriguing for bulls. If Bitcoin can break through the $88,000-$89,000 resistance zone with conviction, the path to six figures could open up quickly. But that's a big if—resistance levels exist precisely because they're hard to break through. We'll know soon enough whether 2026 starts with a bang or more of the same sideways grinding that defined the end of 2025.