Well, so much for the Santa Claus rally. U.S. stock futures started 2026 on a positive note Friday morning, bouncing back after what turned out to be a rather disappointing holiday trading period. If you were hoping for that traditional year-end boost, you were probably left hanging.

The Santa Claus rally period, which kicked off on December 24, didn't exactly deliver the goods this time around. The S&P 500 dropped for four straight sessions during what's supposed to be one of the most reliably cheerful times for the market. Sure, 2025 ended in the green overall, but the final days weren't exactly festive.

On Friday morning, though, futures were pointing upward across the board. The Nasdaq 100 led the charge with a 1.08% gain, followed by the Russell 2000 at 0.75%, the S&P 500 at 0.62%, and the Dow Jones at 0.37%. Not a bad way to start the year, even if it's just recovering lost ground.

Meanwhile, the bond market offered some context for where we stand. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.15%, while the two-year was at 3.46%. And if you're wondering what the Fed might do next, the CME Group's FedWatch tool suggests markets are pricing in an 85.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates exactly where they are when they meet in January. Translation: don't hold your breath for rate cuts anytime soon.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively, were both showing strength in premarket trading. SPY climbed 0.69% to $686.61, while QQQ advanced 1.12% to $621.18, according to market data.

Individual Stocks Making Big Moves

Baidu

Baidu Inc. (BIDU) shares jumped 12.20% in premarket trading after the Chinese tech giant announced plans to spin off and separately list the H shares of Kunlunxin (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd. on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It's the kind of corporate restructuring move that can unlock value, at least in theory, and investors seemed to like what they were hearing.

From a technical perspective, the stock maintains a stronger price trend across short, medium, and long-term timeframes, though it carries a poor quality ranking.

Rubico

Rubico Inc. (RUBI) surged 16.82% after announcing it had entered into a purchase agreement to acquire a vessel-owning company from Top Ships. The company being acquired is party to a shipbuilding contract for a newbuilding mega yacht. Yes, mega yachts are apparently still a thing people invest in.

The stock shows a stronger price trend over the short term but exhibits weakness in medium and long-term trends.

Outlook Therapeutics

On the flip side, Outlook Therapeutics Inc. (OTLK) tumbled 56.52% in premarket trading after disclosing that the FDA issued a complete response letter regarding the ONS-5010/LYTENAVA biologics license application resubmission. In FDA-speak, this means the agency cannot approve the application in its present form for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration. That's about as bad as news gets in the biotech world.

The stock maintains a weaker price trend across all timeframes: short, medium, and long-term.

Intelligent Bio Solutions

Intelligent Bio Solutions Inc. (INBS) dropped 23.40% after announcing a $10.0 million private placement priced at the market under Nasdaq rules. Private placements can dilute existing shareholders, and the market's reaction suggests investors weren't thrilled about the terms.

The stock maintains a weaker price trend over medium and long-term periods but shows strength in the short term.

ChowChow Cloud International

ChowChow Cloud International HLDG Ltd. (CHOW) advanced 80.89% after the company reported that first half 2025 revenue jumped 81.3% year-over-year to $22.8 million, while net income climbed 80% to $1.6 million. Strong revenue growth combined with solid profitability tends to get investors excited, and this was no exception.

Despite the strong earnings report, the stock maintains a weaker price trend over short, medium, and long-term periods.

What Happened Wednesday

Let's rewind to Wednesday's session, which wasn't exactly a banner day for the markets. Real estate, industrials, and materials stocks recorded the biggest losses, and all S&P 500 sectors closed in the red. Not a single sector escaped unscathed.

U.S. stocks settled lower across the board, with the Dow Jones falling more than 300 points and the S&P 500 declining for that fourth consecutive session. It's worth noting again: this happened even though 2025 as a whole ended with gains.

What Analysts Are Saying About 2026

After 2025's record-breaking performance, with the S&P 500 hitting multiple all-time highs, analysts are predicting a significant cooldown for 2026. Don't expect fireworks this year.

Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, is forecasting modest single-digit gains in the 3% to 5% range, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching around 7,250. That's a far cry from the explosive growth we saw last year.

Woods believes the bull market will continue, but at a much more measured pace. "I think the bull run continues, but the stampede is not going to be there," he said. It's a colorful way of saying: yes, stocks might go up, but don't expect the kind of gains that make headlines.

He also warns that 2026 will be particularly difficult to predict due to rising uncertainties. Tariff impacts, midterm elections, and significant changes at the Federal Reserve are all wild cards that could move markets in unexpected ways.

One major concern is the future of the Fed's independence once Jerome Powell's tenure ends. Woods anticipates internal conflict within the central bank, stating, "I suspect we'll have more dissensions from this new Fed." He predicts a struggle where "Fed policy meets Washington rhetoric," which sounds like a polite way of saying things could get messy.

With the Fed unlikely to cave to political pressure for aggressive rate cuts, Woods suggests investors should brace themselves for a year defined more by volatility than easy wins. If 2025 was about riding the wave, 2026 might be about navigating choppier waters.

Economic Calendar

For those tracking economic data releases, Friday's calendar is completely empty. No reports scheduled. It's a quiet start to the year on that front.

Commodities, Currencies, and Crypto

In the commodities space, crude oil futures were trading slightly lower in the early New York session, down 0.40% to hover around $57.19 per barrel. Energy markets remain subdued to start the year.

Gold, on the other hand, was having a much better morning. Gold Spot rose 1.75% to hover around $4,386.32 per ounce. For context, the record high sits at $4,550.11 per ounce, so gold is still in striking distance of all-time highs. When markets feel uncertain, gold tends to shine.

The U.S. Dollar Index spot was modestly higher, up 0.07% at the 98.3890 level.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading 1.83% higher at $89,330.12 per coin. Crypto seems to be starting the year on a positive note, though it's worth remembering that cryptocurrency prices can move dramatically in either direction on any given day.

Global Markets

Asian markets closed mostly higher on Friday, with a couple of notable exceptions. China's CSI 300 and Japan's Nikkei 225 indices declined, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng, South Korea's Kospi, Australia's ASX 200, and India's Nifty 50 all posted gains. European markets were trading higher in early trading as well.

All in all, it's a mixed but generally positive start to 2026 for global equity markets. After missing out on the Santa Claus rally, investors seem eager to turn the page and see what the new year brings. If analysts like Woods are correct, it'll be a year that rewards patience and caution rather than aggressive risk-taking. We'll see soon enough whether the bulls can keep running, even if it's at a slower pace.