Bitcoin (BTC) isn't exactly inspiring confidence right now. The cryptocurrency has spent the start of 2026 stuck below $90,000, leaving investors to wonder whether they're in for months of sideways chop or if something bigger is brewing beneath the surface.

Three Ways This Could Go

According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has entered the new year without a clear directional bias. Instead of trending decisively up or down, it's caught in what they call a "twisted range." Here's how they see things potentially unfolding:

High probability scenario: Range-bound grind. Bitcoin trades broadly between $80,000 and $140,000, with most of the action happening between $90,000 and $120,000. This outcome would be driven by uneven capital flows, ETF-related trading activity, and derivatives churn. Not exciting, but not catastrophic either.

Medium probability scenario: Macro shock. A recession or sudden risk-off event could trigger widespread deleveraging and ETF outflows, dragging Bitcoin below $80,000 and potentially toward $50,000. Think of this as the "things get worse before they get better" scenario.

Low probability scenario: Risk-on breakout. Early monetary easing combined with sustained ETF inflows could push Bitcoin toward $120,000 to $170,000. This would require several favorable conditions aligning at once, which is why it's considered the least likely outcome for now.

What's Driving the Uncertainty?

CryptoQuant points to several factors that will determine which path Bitcoin takes: exchange reserves, ETF flows, futures open interest and liquidations, plus how short-term and long-term holders behave. For now, a range-bound market remains the baseline expectation.

The firm notes that while long-term supports like ETF adoption and structural supply constraints remain intact, macro uncertainty, U.S. political dynamics, and derivatives-driven trading continue to cap any sustained upside. Translation: the near-term outlook is neutral to slightly bearish because there aren't strong signals pointing either direction.

Analyst Stockmoney Lizards echoes this view, expecting Bitcoin to range initially before eventually breaking out to a new all-time high later in the cycle. He suggests that as Bitcoin dominance peaks and capital begins rotating, oversold altcoins could catch relief rallies.

With multiple ETFs expanding market access, the infrastructure for broader crypto exposure keeps growing. That raises the odds that capital eventually spreads beyond Bitcoin, though timing that rotation is anyone's guess.